Prediction Markets Generate Over $200M in Oscars Trading Across Kalshi, Polymarket
Prediction markets generated greater than $200 million in reported buying and selling tied to the 2026 Academy Awards, as contracts associated to Hollywood’s greatest evening drew heavy exercise on Kalshi and Polymarket.
The whole displays buying and selling throughout dozens of Oscars-related markets on the 2 platforms, together with contracts predicting who would win particular person awards, in addition to point out and attendance markets. Ahead of the massive evening, each platforms additionally provided markets predicting which movies, actors and different contenders would obtain Oscar nominations.
Combined totals compiled from particular person markets present roughly $113 million in buying and selling on Kalshi and about $100 million on Polymarket’s worldwide platform, pushing total Oscars-related exercise to round $213 million. Kalshi told Barron’s that its Oscars markets generated greater than $105 million in buying and selling, although the corporate didn’t specify which markets have been included in that determine. Totals compiled for this evaluation embrace nomination markets that resolved earlier in the awards season.
Academy Awards buying and selling helped enhance each platforms’ weekly volume numbers in the entertainment category, with Kalshi’s markets rising 326% week over week and Polymarket’s Culture markets practically doubling in quantity.
While these volumes are notable for a cultural occasion like an awards present, they’re dwarfed by buying and selling tied to some main sports activities occasions. Earlier this 12 months, prediction markets tied to the Super Bowl generated $1.63 billion in mixed buying and selling throughout Kalshi and Polymarket.
Note: Volume figures throughout the 2 platforms should not instantly comparable. Kalshi reviews buying and selling quantity primarily based on the variety of contracts traded, attributing $1 per contract, whereas Polymarket reviews the greenback worth of trades on the contract’s market worth. Because contracts often commerce between $0.01 and $0.99, the identical commerce can seem bigger in Kalshi’s quantity totals than on Polymarket.
Best Picture and Best Actor lead Academy Awards buying and selling
Most of the buying and selling across the Oscars was concentrated in a small variety of headline awards.
On Kalshi, the 2 largest markets have been Best Actor and Best Picture, every producing roughly $25 million in buying and selling. Other main classes together with Best Supporting Actor, Best Director, and Best Actress every attracted between roughly $6 million and $7 million in quantity.
Trading on Polymarket adopted the same sample. The Best Picture market alone generated about $39 million in buying and selling, making it the single-largest Oscars market throughout each platforms. Best Actor adopted at roughly $13 million.
A handful of different classes additionally generated significant exercise. On Kalshi, Best Cinematography produced about $3.65 million in buying and selling, whereas Original Screenplay, International Feature, and Animated Feature every generated between roughly $1.4 million and $1.6 million.
A portion of the general Oscars buying and selling exercise got here earlier in the awards season by nomination markets, which allowed merchants to take a position on which contenders would obtain official nods. Those markets resolved as soon as nominations have been revealed in January however generated roughly $17 million in buying and selling on Kalshi and about $4 million on Polymarket, including greater than $20 million in further quantity to the general Oscars market totals.
Both platforms additionally hosted non-winner markets tied on to the ceremony itself. On Kalshi, a market asking which celebrities would attend the ceremony generated about $2.9 million in buying and selling, whereas a separate point out market tied particularly to host Conan O’Brien tracked whether or not sure phrases or phrases can be mentioned throughout his monologue or all through the printed, producing roughly $1.6 million in quantity. Polymarket listed a broader “What shall be mentioned in the course of the Oscars” market not tied to the host, which generated about $258,000 in buying and selling, together with roughly $163,000 in its celeb attendance market.
In a March 16 put up, Kalshi noted how quickly its Oscars markets have grown over the previous couple of years. In 2024, simply $2.3 million was traded in the markets, whereas final 12 months noticed $29.6 million traded.
Prediction markets appropriately name 19 of 24 classes
Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket appropriately predicted the winner in 19 of the 24 Academy Award classes, in keeping with closing market costs shortly earlier than the ceremony.
In the foremost awards, merchants largely bought it proper. Market odds on each platforms appropriately favored the eventual winners for classes like Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and each screenplay classes in the hours main as much as the ceremony.
But a number of smaller classes produced surprises.
In Best Cinematography, merchants strongly favored One Battle After Another, which carried odds above 75% on each platforms earlier than the ceremony. The award as a substitute went to Sinners cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw.
Prediction markets have been additionally flawed in Best Documentary Feature, the place The Perfect Neighbor entered the ceremony as the favourite earlier than Mr. Nobody Against Putin in the end received the Oscar.
Short movie classes additionally proved troublesome for merchants. Markets favored Butterfly in Best Animated Short Film, however the award went to The Girl Who Cried Pearls. The Best Live Action Short Film class produced one of many evening’s most uncommon outcomes when the Academy declared a tie, awarding Oscars to each Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers.
The closing miss got here in the first-time Best Casting class, the place markets favored Sinners however the award in the end went to One Battle After Another. Despite these surprises, the general hit price was nonetheless comparatively robust.
Polymarket merchants carried out barely higher earlier in the awards season in the course of the Golden Globes. CEO Shayne Coplan boasted in regards to the markets correctly predicting 26 of the ceremony’s 28 winners.
Tie in quick movie class highlights settlement variations
The tie in the Best Live Action Short Film class uncovered variations in how prediction markets resolve uncommon outcomes, echoing earlier controversy over how Kalshi and Polymarket settled contracts tied to Iran’s Supreme Leader leaving workplace.
On Kalshi, merchants have been in a position to wager instantly on a tie consequence alongside the person nominees and every market prominently featured a notice clarifying how ties can be resolved. But the markets handled that outcome as extraordinarily unlikely. Reporting from Variety discovered that solely about 40 merchants purchased the Short Film tie contract when it was priced at roughly 1% odds forward of the ceremony. At that worth, a $50 commerce would have returned about $5,000.
Polymarket dealt with the state of affairs in a different way. Because the platform’s market guidelines require a single successful contract, the market resolved primarily based on alphabetical order, which means the contract for The Singers was handled because the successful consequence over Two People Exchanging Saliva.
Entertainment markets broaden prediction market attain
Prediction market odds obtained vital consideration forward of the ceremony, with costs from Kalshi and Polymarket more and more cited in media protection of the awards race and used as a real-time gauge of expectations in main classes.
The Golden Globes featured built-in Polymarket odds in the precise present broadcast, which drew mixed reactions from viewers. While the Oscars broadcast didn’t have built-in odds, the CNN pre-ceremony pink carpet present did present Kalshi odds all through, which the hosts usually mentioned. CNN has an exclusive deal to include Kalshi’s real-time prediction market information throughout its tv, digital and social platforms.
Kalshi bought a distinct type of shout-out on the pink carpet that drew some consideration. Investor and tv character Kevin O’Leary, who seems in the Oscar-nominated Marty Supreme, informed reporters he traded $1,000 on co-star Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor.
Together, the printed references, media protection and buying and selling exercise surrounding the Oscars ceremony illustrate how prediction markets are more and more changing into a part of the broader dialog round main cultural occasions, displaying they lengthen past the sports activities and election markets that are likely to dominate public consideration. As platforms develop into entertainment markets, awards reveals just like the Oscars are rising as one of many clearest examples of how market-based forecasts are starting to form mainstream cultural discourse.
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