|

Tom Lee Says Ethereum Looks Ready To Exit Crypto Winter

‼

Tom Lee used a Hong Kong convention stage to argue that Ethereum could also be near a cyclical flip, pointing to historic market analogs and on-chain cost-basis information that, in his view, recommend the selloff has reached exhaustion.

Speaking on the third Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong on March 13–14, Lee stated Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark had recognized a placing resemblance between Ethereum’s latest worth motion and two main S&P 500 declines: the 1987 crash and the 2011 selloff. Lee described the setup as unusually tight.

Is The Ethereum Bottom In?

“Tom DeMark, he’s a legendary market timer, and he’s offered an evaluation to us that claims Ethereum, in the previous couple of months, particularly since October, is absolutely mirroring what occurred to the S&P 500 in 2011 and what occurred to the S&P 500 in 1987,” Lee stated. “If you have been concerned in US markets, each occasions marked main declines within the S&P. Well, based on him, there’s a 93% correlation to what Ethereum’s doing in the present day to what the S&P did in 1987.”

That comparability is doing a whole lot of work in Lee’s argument. If the 1987 analog holds, he stated, Ethereum would have already bottomed on March 7. If the 2011 comparability is the higher match, the market is bottoming now. In both case, Lee’s conclusion was the identical: “So utilizing his evaluation, we expect we’re on the backside or exiting the crypto winter now.”

He didn’t go away the case resting on chart symmetry alone. Lee additionally pointed to Ethereum’s realized worth, the on-chain metric that estimates the common acquisition value of cash primarily based on their final motion on the blockchain. In his telling, that determine now sits at $2,241 for ETH, giving buyers a option to choose how deeply underwater the common holder has turn into.

Lee stated the sample at prior lows is revealing. In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% low cost to realized price. In 2025, the low cost reached 21% earlier than ETH turned increased. “Currently, we’re at 22%,” he stated, including that the market is now sitting in roughly the identical zone the place final yr’s reversal started. “So we’re on the stage the place in 2025, Ethereum began to show increased.”

In different phrases, Lee’s thesis is that Ethereum doesn’t want a pristine macro backdrop or a recent narrative cycle to stabilize; it solely must revisit the type of holder ache that has traditionally marked exhaustion. By his measure, that threshold is already right here.

He additionally tried to zoom out from the quick drawdown and re-anchor ETH in an extended time horizon. “Before you lose any hope, needless to say during the last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed each different asset class over the previous decade,” Lee stated. “In the final 10 years, Ethereum’s return is 49,000%. That means nearly 490 occasions your cash.”

Lee contrasted that with Bitcoin’s 11,000% acquire over the identical span and even with Nvidia, which he referred to as “the one finest inventory within the US,” saying it had returned 65 occasions buyers’ cash.

At press time, ETH traded at $2,147.

Similar Posts