XRP Could be Facing a 18% Breakdown, Hidden Bear Flag Pattern Shows

XRP worth bounced roughly 3% from its March 27 low of $1.31, reclaiming the $1.35 space. However, the transfer might be constructing a bear flag somewhat than the beginning of a sustained restoration, and the broader market situations will not be serving to.

Since peaking at $1.60 on March 17, XRP has already corrected 18%. The intraday bounce appears to be like constructive on the floor, however the chart, derivatives, and on-chain knowledge all level in the identical path.

Bear Flag Forms as Hidden Bearish Divergence Builds

The 12-hour chart exhibits XRP trading inside a bear flag sample. The pole fashioned through the 18% decline from $1.60 to $1.31 between March 17 and March 27. The present 3% bounce is shaping the flag portion, a rising channel that sometimes resolves with one other leg down matching the pole’s measurement.

If the decrease trendline of the flag breaks, a comparable 18% measured transfer may be triggered from the breakdown level. That would take the XRP worth towards the $1.08 zone (highlighted later within the worth part).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, provides one other layer of concern. Between February 6 and March 28, on the 12-hour chart, the value is forming a decrease high whereas the RSI is forming a larger high.

That is a hidden bearish divergence, which generally factors to a continuation of the present downtrend somewhat than a reversal.

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The divergence has not but been confirmed. Confirmation requires the subsequent 12-hour candle to shut under $1.35. If as an alternative the value clears $1.35 and sustains above it, the construction delays.

Full invalidation sits above $1.60, the pole’s peak. If the broader market continues to weaken, this setup may verify rapidly.

However, even with out the RSI, the derivatives and spot knowledge recommend the bounce is standing on skinny floor.

Open Interest Rises, however Hodlers Are Reducing Positions

Since the bounce started, XRP open curiosity has risen from $737.72 million to $759.21 million, a 2.9% enhance. At the identical time, the funding fee has change into much less destructive, transferring from -0.011% to -0.003%. That mixture means extra lengthy positions are being opened into the bounce.

Rising open curiosity throughout a bounce inside a bear flag is often a warning somewhat than a bullish affirmation. It means some leveraged merchants are betting on bounce continuation, but when the sample breaks down, these new longs change into liquidation gas.

The spot market gives no counterbalance. The Hodler internet place change, a Glassnode metric monitoring accumulation by longer-term wallets (155 days or extra), held regular between March 19 and March 25 at roughly 238 million XRP.

Since March 25, that stability has dropped to 229.78 million XRP, a discount of roughly 8.25 million tokens or 3.47%.

Conviction holders are quietly decreasing publicity proper earlier than the XRP price bounces. When derivatives lean lengthy, and spot holders lean out, the setup favors the bears.

If the RSI-led hidden bearish divergence confirms and the value corrects, the spot help wanted to soak up the promoting merely will not be there. It stays to be seen whether or not spot patrons additionally are available, because the current longs did. If that occurs, some spot help might help stem the attainable drop.

XRP Price Forecast and the $1.35 Test

The XRP worth wants a clear 12-hour shut above $1.35 to delay the bearish setup. Above that, $1.37 and $1.40 change into the subsequent resistance ranges. However, primarily based on the bear flag construction and the divergence forming, any transfer below $1.35 that holds would start the affirmation course of.

If the flag breaks and the $1.31-$1.32 neckline zone provides approach, the measured transfer of roughly 18% prompts from the breakdown level. That targets the $1.08 zone, which might then characterize the bottom degree for XRP since early February 2026.

On the upside, solely a transfer above $1.60 would totally invalidate the bearish construction and end the lower-high sequence that has defined XRP’s 2026 trading playbook.

For now, the $1.35 reclaim separates a delayed bearish setup from an 18% breakdown towards $1.08.

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