Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Will BTC Start Q2 After a Disastrous Q1?
Bitcoin is closing out Q1 2026 on a bitter observe. The largest crypto is buying and selling round $66.4k after a quarter that noticed shedding almost half its worth from the October 2025 peak close to $125k. With macro and geopolitical uncertainty nonetheless weighing on threat property and no main structural degree reclaimed, BTC heads into Q2 with out a clear bullish catalyst on the horizon.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the each day timeframe, it’s evident that the descending channel that has ruled Bitcoin’s worth motion since late 2025 stays intact. Both the 100-day MA (~$77k) and 200-day MA (~$90k) are declining above the present worth. The $75k–$80k zone, which served as a key assist base earlier, has since flipped to resistance and rejected each restoration try in March.
Immediate assist sits on the $60k band, which held throughout the February capitulation drop. A breakdown under that degree on a closing foundation would expose BTC to the $50k zone. Meanwhile, the RSI is hovering round 40, which displays a market that’s stabilizing however removed from turning round. Therefore, a decisive each day shut above $75k stays the minimal requirement for any credible shift within the broader development.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
After spending a number of weeks compressing inside a rising flag sample between roughly $60k and $75k, BTC has damaged the sample to the draw back and is now consolidating close to $66. The present vary is flagged clearly by the pink field on the chart. The triangle’s decrease boundary, which had offered assist on a number of retests, gave means within the closing days of March, and the value has since struggled to reclaim it.
The RSI on the 4-hour is recovering from oversold territory and ticking upward towards the mid-40s. This leaves room for a short-term bounce. However, the important thing check will likely be whether or not BTC can reclaim the damaged sample assist and construct above it. Failure to take action retains the trail open towards a retest of the important thing $60k–$62k assist zone.
On-Chain Analysis
One of the extra compelling information factors heading into Q2 is Bitcoin’s alternate reserve, which has dropped to roughly 2.7M BTC. This is the bottom degree in all the dataset going again to late 2022. The decline has been particularly relentless over the previous couple of weeks, because the market is attempting to kind a backside above $60k
In isolation, declining alternate reserves are usually interpreted as a bullish structural sign, as a result of fewer cash on exchanges means lowered speedy sell-side availability. However, the context issues.
Reserves have been falling alongside worth, not forward of a restoration, which suggests the outflows mirror long-term holder accumulation reasonably than incoming demand. So, till contemporary consumers step in and translate that offer tightness into precise worth appreciation, the on-chain image stays constructive in principle however unconfirmed in apply.
The submit Bitcoin Price Analysis: How Will BTC Start Q2 After a Disastrous Q1? appeared first on CryptoPotato.