Will The XRP Price Have Better Luck In The Second Quarter Of The Year? Analyst Shares Forecast
XRP closed Q1 2026 with a 27.1% decline from its quarter open, extending a correction that has now erased greater than 60% from the token’s July 2025 high of $3.65. The present construction now leaves the XRP worth at an important decision point heading into Q2, the place the following transfer may present whether or not this can be a pause earlier than restoration or a part of a deeper correction below $1 in the new quarter. A latest technical evaluation shared on X lays out each potentialities, however the tone says warning is the dominant theme for now.
Q1 Played Out As Expected. Here’s What The Analyst Got Right
Going into Q1, the analyst had flagged that XRP’s correction in 2025 was not but full and that yet another low was probably earlier than the formation of any sustainable rally. That forecast proved correct. XRP dipped beneath $1.20 in early February, exactly throughout the help zone the analyst had recognized. The dip eventually bottomed round $1.16 on February 6 earlier than a restoration of about 55% from that low in the identical month.
The transfer, nonetheless, didn’t translate right into a full pattern reversal, and the XRP worth struggled all through March. Price motion throughout the weekly construction nonetheless displays a market struggling to reclaim power. The rebound didn’t push into greater resistance zones above $1.5. This bearish worth motion ultimately ended up with a destructive 2.79% shut in March, which is the sixth consecutive month of bearish closes.
XRP Weekly Price Chart. Source: @Morecryptoonl On X
A Temporary Bounce In Q2, But Not A Full Bullish Reversal
As it stands, the XRP worth is now sitting at an vital determination level, and the analyst is distinguishing between two eventualities heading into Q2. The main focus is on whether or not it will possibly maintain a corrective bounce, which is labeled as a “B wave” primarily based on the Elliott Wave idea, again to the $1.76 to $2.86 resistance band.
According to the evaluation, any significant restoration in Q2 would want to push decisively into this area. A transfer above $2 would start to validate the thought of a broader rally. This prediction relies on the 50% Fibonacci extension at $2.03380 and the 61.8% degree at $2.34157, each on the weekly chart.
The present expectation leans towards a corrective bounce fairly than a full breakout. A transfer greater in April or early Q2 is taken into account potential, especially since a similar bounce already occurred earlier within the yr.
However, the construction of that bounce issues greater than the bounce itself. If the worth motion kinds a three-wave transfer upward, it might probably verify a B-wave situation, that means the rally is corrective in nature and never the beginning of a brand new bullish cycle.
In that case, the XRP worth may nonetheless be setting up for another leg down (a C wave), which can unfold later in Q2 or lengthen into Q3.