A Repeating Bitcoin Price Drop Pattern Just Started Its Third Act

Bitcoin (BTC) worth trades close to $67,044 on April 3, sitting inside a falling parallel channel on the 4-hour chart that has contained each swing since March 17.

The channel has already produced two sharp drops following the same path. The first measured 11.49%, the second 9.72%. A third leg is now constructing from the early April swing high, with 5% of the transfer already full. A hidden bearish divergence on the RSI suggests the present correction has additional to go, whereas on-chain information reveals that short-term contributors haven’t but reached the capitulation depth wanted to mark a flooring.

Two Drops Followed a Path, and The Third Is Underway

Since March 17, Bitcoin price has been buying and selling inside a descending parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. The construction has adopted a repeating path the place every swing from a neighborhood high traces the same trajectory of decrease highs and decrease lows earlier than accelerating right into a sharper decline.

The first accomplished drop started from the March 17 high and measured 11.49%. The second started from the next decrease high and fell 9.72%. Both adopted a comparable form, rallying briefly contained in the channel earlier than breaking decrease.

The third leg is now forming. From the early April’s native high, BTC worth has already corrected roughly 5%. If this leg follows the trail of the earlier two, a drop within the Sep 11% vary from the swing high would go decrease.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, helps the case that the third leg has extra room. Between March 22 and April 2, worth made a decrease high whereas RSI made the next high on the 4-hour chart. That is a hidden bearish divergence, a sample that usually seems throughout corrections and confirms that the prevailing downtrend is more likely to proceed relatively than reverse.

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The divergence wouldn’t get nullified except Bitcoin worth reclaims $67,454 on the 4-hour timeframe. With the present correction already confirmed by the divergence, the query turns into whether or not on-chain contributors have reached exhaustion or nonetheless have losses left to provide.

Short-Term Participants Have Not Hit Bottom Yet

The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL), a Glassnode metric that measures whether or not current consumers are collectively in revenue or loss, at present reads -0.22. This locations short-term contributors within the capitulation zone, that means the typical current purchaser is sitting on a 22% unrealized loss.

However, -0.22 will not be deep capitulation by 2026 requirements. The metric bottomed at -0.47 on February 5 through the sharpest sell-off of the yr, almost twice the present studying. The current stage is akin to early November 2025, a interval that didn’t mark a sturdy flooring. Short-term contributors nonetheless have significant room to soak up extra ache earlier than reaching the type of excessive that traditionally indicators exhaustion.

The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which highlights key provide clusters from Glassnode reveals precisely the place that ache might materialize. The single largest near-term provide cluster sits at $65,636, the place roughly 524,815 BTC representing 2.62% of the whole provide final modified palms. A second cluster follows at $64,373 with 0.68% of provide.

These clusters sit simply 2-3% under the present worth. If the third channel leg pushes Bitcoin price into this zone, the contributors concentrated there face a choice. With STH-NUPL already in capitulation however removed from its 2026 low, the chance that they promote relatively than maintain stays elevated. The worth ranges now decide whether or not the channel delivers them to that check.

Bitcoin Price and the three% Gap to the Biggest Cluster

The 4-hour chart with Fibonacci ranges frames each crucial Bitcoin worth stage from right here. BTC currently trades at $67,044, sitting between the 0.236 Fib at $67,607 and the 0.382 Fib at $66,580.

The first significant assist nonetheless lies at $65,750, the 0.5 Fib. Below that, $64,920 on the 0.618 stage provides key assist. These two assist zones align carefully with the URPD clusters recognized within the earlier part. Losing $64,920 would imply the most important close by provide focus has been breached. If these contributors select to promote relatively than soak up the loss, the trail opens towards $63,737 and $62,232.

A drop to $62,232 would signify roughly 10% from the early April swing high. That’s per the magnitude of the channel’s two accomplished drops. Below $62,232, $57,883 turns into the subsequent structural goal.

For the bearish thesis to fail, Bitcoin worth wants a 4-hour shut above $67,607, which might nullify the hidden bearish divergence. A shut above $69,268, the extent that has capped each try since early April, would verify that the channel’s repeating sample is breaking.

The channel has adopted a repeating path twice. Whether the third leg matches the primary two relies on whether or not the $65,636 provide cluster holds or folds. With STH-NUPL not but at its 2026 low and hidden bearish divergence nonetheless energetic, the construction favors yet one more accomplished leg earlier than exhaustion.

A 4-hour shut under $64,920 separates a managed pullback from a cluster-driven sell-off towards $62,232. However, reclaiming $67,607 could be step one towards breaking the channel’s rhythm.

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