A Storm Is Coming and Bear May Follow, Expert Says
Bitcoin is in an uptrend, the bull continues to be working, however a bear confirmed entry, and an explosive storm could also be on its manner, in accordance with Tony Severino, market analyst at fintech platform YouHodler. Ethereum is weak in comparison with Bitcoin, however that is about to vary. At the identical time, 2026 can be an enormous yr, maybe BTC’s “most decisive” but.
According to Severino, Bitcoin is, by definition, nonetheless in an uptrend.
Yet, overhead resistance is stacked. Bitcoin might attempt to reclaim the 50-week shifting common, which sits at some $102,000.
Then, $100,000 will act as a key psychological barrier, and this makes it “a really perfect zone for a bull entice.” A transfer above $100,000 “might embolden bulls with a ‘we’re so again’ mentality.” But this might “blind them to a possible reversal again right down to new lows,” Severino says.
He argues that,
“If bulls are in a position to reclaim $100,000 and maintain the help line for weeks to months, any likelihood of a bear market will doubtless be cancelled.”
A Bear Is Here
Importantly, Q1 2026 can be crucial. Per the analyst, it can “present us the way in which for the remainder of the yr.”
Given the high timeframe momentum and four-year-cycle timing and dynamics, he argues, “there’s a greater likelihood that Bitcoin is getting into a bear market.”
Therefore, it’s doubtless that BTC will fail to reclaim $100,000. This would point out “that the bull market is certainly over.”
To affirm a downtrend and change right into a bear market, the coin would want to verify “a decrease low.” Therefore, $74,000 turns into a crucial help zone that bulls should defend to maintain BTC bullish.
Falling beneath this zone would affirm the bear market. The subsequent draw back goal would then sit round $53,000.
“At that time, greater timeframe technical indicators would attain ranges oversold sufficient to start to think about a real bear market backside is in,” he says.
At the identical time, Severino mentioned the important thing technical indicators he’s taking note of. Per his e mail, these are all associated to momentum. And momentum persists, he says. “Even when a automotive hits its brakes to keep away from an accident, sturdy sufficient momentum might push the car in direction of a crash. It will take time for bearish momentum to show bullish.”
As an instance, the analysts supplied the six-week LMACD (Logarithmic Moving Average Convergence Divergence). This technical indicator confirmed a bearish crossover, he says. It takes 200-365 on common between the sign and a backside, in addition to as much as 860 days between a bearish and a bullish crossover.
“I’d have to start to see the month-to-month LMACD traces converge and shut in on a bullish crossover earlier than I’d contemplate a bear market thesis invalidated,” Severino says.
Four-Year-Cycle Under Microscope
“Make no mistake, 2026 can be Bitcoin’s most decisive yr but,” Severino says. “2025 was characterised by confusion” as a consequence of macro backdrop uncertainty and Donald Trump’s “tariff tantrums.”
Moreover, Bitcoin’s 2025 yearly candlestick will shut as a Doji. This is usually a pause in a development. Therefore, both a reversal or sturdy continuation will observe it.
“Simply put, Bitcoin will show the four-year-cycle stays with a bear market, or break the cyclical sample with a renewed bull run.”
At the identical time, “a storm is coming.”
Volatility is stirring on the bottom timeframes. Yet, greater timeframes present an “unusually calm” market. “A spark is ready to ignite this compression into an explosion,” the analyst argues.
Ethereum Could Be The Decision Maker
Ethereum stays comparatively weak in comparison with Bitcoin, Severino says. However, the analyst says, “that is about to vary dramatically.”
The ETHBTC pair exhibits a reversal: ETH may very well be outperforming BTC in the long term.
However, Severino cautious that if the cryptocurrency market enters a downtrend and bear market, this outperformance may very well be related to ETHUSD holding higher than BTCUSD, fairly than ETHUSD rising sooner than BTCUSD.
Yet, this BTC-ETH “mismatch” ought to current many beneficial buying and selling alternatives even within the bear market.
Finally, the ETH/BTC ratio could present a possible capital rotation into Ethereum.
Several occasions might dampen BTC and increase ETH. These embody a BTC-related catalyst pushing sentiment down, or ETH being much more oversold than BTC. The latter may even see Bitcoin reset whereas Ethereum continues the inspiration constructing section.
Therefore, “if Ethereum can revitalize crypto market sentiment, it could lastly create the right storm scenario for an sudden altcoin season,” Severino concludes. “If Ethereum’s power fails to ignite curiosity in altcoins, we could also be witnessing the market purging tasks with out true potential.”
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