Abnormal Polymarket bets on potential Nobel Prize winner cause Norway to launch probe

Norwegian officers launched an investigation on Oct. 10 right into a suspected leak of confidential data after on-line wagers on this yr’s Nobel Peace Prize winner surged simply hours earlier than the official announcement.

Authorities mentioned the spike in betting exercise on Polymarket appeared to point out insider data of the Nobel Committee’s resolution.

Venezuelan opposition chief María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Peace Prize for her pro-democracy efforts, a end result that sparked a sudden surge in bets in her favor in a single day.

According to reports first printed by Bloomberg and native Norwegian media, a number of giant wagers had been positioned on Machado shortly after midnight Norwegian time.

Data reviewed by investigators reveals that one person, working beneath the deal with “dirtycup,” positioned about $70,000 in bets and profited roughly $30,000. Two different accounts made comparable trades, with the trio incomes a mixed $90,000 earlier than the announcement.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, mentioned the incident “appears we now have been prey to a legal actor who needs to earn cash on our data.”

The Nobel Committee, which had finalized its resolution earlier within the week, described the suspected breach as a critical violation of its confidentiality requirements.

The episode has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets, the place customers commerce contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Advocates argue that the platforms combination crowd knowledge, whereas critics warn that they’ll allow speculative or illicit habits if insider data is concerned.

Polymarket has beforehand confronted regulatory strain. In 2022, it agreed to block U.S. customers after the CFTC dominated it was providing unregistered event-based contracts. The platform was lastly cleared to return to the US earlier this yr beneath the Trump administration.

The Nobel Institute mentioned it is going to conduct an inside evaluate to decide whether or not confidential data was accessed or shared unlawfully. Norwegian police haven’t disclosed whether or not any legal expenses are being thought-about.

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