After the Golden Globes, Polymarket’s Near-Perfect Accuracy Raised Eyebrows
Polymarket customers positioned 27 bets on the outcomes of the Golden Globe Awards, with 26 of them turning out to be right. As the main prediction market grows in reputation, so do considerations over insider buying and selling.
The partnership between Polymarket and the Golden Globes additionally raised questions on whether or not this can be the new regular for future awards ceremonies.
Polymarket Posts 96% Golden Globes Hit Rate
On Friday, the Golden Globes introduced in a press launch that it had partnered with the world’s largest prediction marketplace for the annual awards present.
That similar day, Polymarket created 28 Golden Globe-specific polls, with 27 of them completely centered on the outcomes of the varied classes at stake.
In simply three days, tens of millions of customers flocked to the platform to put their wagers on who this 12 months’s winners could be. Polls ranged from Best Motion Picture to Best Podcast, with some buying and selling volumes exceeding $275,000. In complete, contracts amassed at the very least $2.5 million in bets.
On Sunday, the ceremony unfolded as anticipated. By the finish of the night time, onstage winners weren’t the solely ones leaving with trophies.
Polymarket bettors had purpose to rejoice too, with the platform accurately calling 26 of 27 classes, a 96% hit price.
The solely betters left to lick their woes have been those that positioned their cash on Sean Penn as finest supporting actor as an alternative of Stellan Skarsgard, who gained for his efficiency in Sentimental Value.
The last-minute partnership shocked many observers. Moreso, the outcomes drew renewed consideration to considerations about potential insider buying and selling on these loosely regulated platforms.
Trust Questions Grow Around Event Contracts
Though 2026 is simply two weeks in, a collection of occasions associated to prediction market polls has raised a number of eyebrows.
On Wednesday, an issue born out of the White House press room came about after Secretary Karoline Leavitt concluded her day by day briefing at roughly 64 minutes and 30 seconds, just shy of the 65-minute mark that prediction market Kalshi had set as a betting threshold.
At the time, the market confirmed a 98% chance that the briefing would exceed the 65-minute mark. Traders who guess towards this end result noticed returns of as much as 50 occasions their funding inside seconds.
The occasion rapidly generated concern over potential insider buying and selling. However, Kalshi later dismissed these claims as baseless, provided that the ballot noticed a low buying and selling quantity.
Nonetheless, these concerns have fresh precedents which might be exhausting to shrug off.
On January 3, simply hours earlier than the US introduced it had captured and extradited Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, one Polymarket trader made over $400,000 by betting he could be faraway from energy earlier than the finish of the month.
Polymarket has additionally attracted politically linked capital. According to Axios, in 2025, the firm introduced that it had acquired an funding from 1789 Capital, a enterprise agency affiliated with Donald Trump Jr., who additionally joined its advisory board.
Taken collectively, these episodes have additionally drawn consideration to the rising overlap between crypto and prediction markets.
Crypto Flows Rise With Betting Volumes
Polymarket is intently tied to on-chain rails. Users can switch funds throughout varied networks, together with Ethereum, Polygon, Base, and Arbitrum, and deposit belongings corresponding to USDT and USDC.
As betting exercise grows, demand for stablecoins particularly is likely to rise with it, pushing them additional into the award betting scene.
With the Oscars roughly two months away, the Golden Globes end result raises questions on whether or not equally correct prediction markets will become a familiar feature in future award reveals.
The Academy Awards haven’t but introduced any partnership of the type. Regardless, Polymarket has listed polls on class outcomes.
Among the 22 polls at present out there, buying and selling volumes vary from $112,000 to $8 million.
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