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AI Predicts BTC Price If US Congress Passes Bitcoin Reserve Legislation

Bitcoin sits close to $113,000 as of September 23, 2025, recovering from a pointy mid-month correction. The broader narrative round US coverage has shifted dramatically this yr, following President Trump’s government order making a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March. 

While the reserve already holds about 198,000 BTC in forfeited belongings, the decisive second will come if Congress passes laws to codify and increase it.

We have used superior chain prompts, market context, BTC provide, and OTC information on ChatGPT to foretell Bitcoin’s worth response to totally different legislative outcomes. The evaluation reveals what the circulate math tells us, and which market indicators merchants ought to watch.

US Bitcoin Reserve Timeline

What Congress is Debating

  • Executive order (March 2025): Established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, putting seized Bitcoin into everlasting federal custody and prohibiting gross sales.
  • Pending payments: Senator Cynthia Lummis and Rep. Nick Begich launched the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, which in some drafts proposes accumulating as much as 1 million BTC over 5 years.
  • Key distinction: The government order is reversible by a future president; laws would lock within the reserve, outline reporting guidelines, and probably mandate new purchases.

Why Mandated Bitcoin Buying Changes Everything

Post-halving, new Bitcoin issuance is round 164,250 BTC yearly (~450/day). A congressional mandate to purchase 200,000 BTC per yr (~550/day) would exceed new provide. 

Unless long-term holders or miners sell aggressively, authorities demand must pull cash from OTC and change balances.

  • OTC provide: Estimated close to 155,000 BTC in August 2025, down sharply from 2021.
  • Exchange balances: Hovering round 2.9 million BTC, trending decrease.
  • Result: Any large-scale authorities program would tighten liquidity and pressure greater clearing costs.

Four Bitcoin Reserve Scenarios To Consider

A. Codify Only

If Congress merely turns the chief order into legislation with out a buy mandate, the Reserve turns into tougher to unwind politically. This would:

  • Lower the US regulatory threat premium.
  • Support regular inflows into spot ETFs and company treasuries.
  • Likely spark a modest grind greater, however not a structural provide shock.

B. Mandate With Slow DCA

If laws requires ~200k BTC/yr and Treasury executes steadily through OTC and ETFs, Bitcoin faces every day demand bigger than new issuance. Expect:

  • Persistent upward drift, punctuated by sharp rallies on execution days.
  • OTC stock thinning, forcing gradual migration of flows onto exchanges.
  • Pullbacks changing into purchase alternatives as structural demand persists.

C. Mandate With Front-Loaded Buying

A front-loaded accumulation plan would rapidly drain OTC shares and push Treasury straight into change markets. This would:

  • Trigger sharp repricing greater, with volatility spikes and extensive slippage.
  • Likely appeal to copycat bids from corporates, pensions, and sovereigns.
  • Risk creating unsustainable short-term spikes adopted by consolidation.

D. Watered-Down Compromise

If laws is symbolic however avoids funding or buy targets, preliminary headlines could spark a quick pop. However:

  • Traders would possible fade the transfer.
  • Market affect would resemble “promote the information” habits.

Key Trading Signals To Monitor

  • Bill textual content: Look for express buy targets within the remaining model.
  • Treasury steerage: Start date and cadence of any purchase program.
  • ETF creations: Sustained web inflows >$300M/day would affirm structural demand.
  • OTC chatter: Widening spreads and sourcing delays level to produce stress.
  • On-exchange depth: Shrinking 1% order e book depth indicators growing slippage threat.

BTC Price Levels To Watch

  • Support: $110,000 (post-liquidation base), $100,000 (psychological anchor).
  • Resistance: $116,000 (September high), $125,000 (breakout stage), and $150,000 (psychological magnet if mandate passes).
Potential Bitcoin Price Ranges By US Reserve Legislation Scenario (2025)

Macro Overlay

Federal Reserve policy, US greenback energy, and gold correlations stay essential. A dovish Fed and weaker greenback would amplify upside from reserve laws, whereas a hawkish shock may blunt the impact.

If Congress passes codification solely, Bitcoin ought to profit from diminished coverage threat and stronger ETF flows, possible sustaining an upward grind. 

If lawmakers move a mandated accumulation program, the circulate math is unambiguous. Government demand would outstrip new provide, and with OTC reserves already skinny, Bitcoin’s clearing worth would want to rise to attract out sellers.

The distinction between modest coverage tailwind and full provide shock hinges on the ultimate textual content of the legislation. 

Traders ought to put together for each outcomes. But in both case, US legislation around a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would mark a historic shift in Bitcoin’s international position as a sovereign reserve asset.

The publish AI Predicts BTC Price If US Congress Passes Bitcoin Reserve Legislation appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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