Stellar (XLM) skilled a pointy rally in July and has been range-bound since. The altcoin dropped from the $.40 mark within the first few days of September, however recovered practically 8% over the previous 2 weeks. 

With XLM exhibiting cautious indicators, we used OpenAI’s ChatGPT-5 to conduct a deep evaluation of Stellar’s key on-chain metrics. The modules got a number of indicators like CMF, accumulation/distribution, whale information, bull/bear energy and extra. 

Here’s what the evaluation revealed. 

Three Surprising Facts About XLM Price From September

XLM Price rose whereas whales sat in money. Santiment reveals the share of stablecoins held by $5 million+ wallets climbed from 55% to 59% by means of the month. Yet, (*3*) to ~$0.417 on Sept 11–13. 

That combo implies the rally was not whale-led. It was doubtless pushed by smaller consumers and quick masking. So, upside stalled as soon as that movement light.

Steady spot accumulation regardless of weak cash movement. On TradingView, the Accumulation/Distribution line climbed to just about 1.72 billion throughout the interval, at the same time as CMF completed round −0.13 and spent a lot of mid-month under zero. 

Overall, the bullish A/D vs. unfavourable CMF divergence factors to quiet absorption on spot, whereas broader liquidity leaned risk-off.

Momentum stayed mushy into the native high. The histogram (BBP) not often confirmed sustained positives throughout the run to ~$0.417. 

So, XLM price printed higher highs whereas momentum didn’t. This is a traditional unfavourable divergence. 

After the height, worth held ~$0.38–0.39 anyway. It suggests sturdy fingers defended dips at the same time as momentum cooled.

Three October Price Points

• $0.36–0.37 (retest assist): This zone capped the mid-Sept pullbacks (Sept 17–18). CMF’s unfavourable learn and elevated whale stablecoin share go away room for another liquidity sweep. Lose $0.37 on closes and a measured transfer targets ~$0.33 (vary peak ≈$0.04 beneath the shelf).
• $0.40–0.41 (pivot / magnet): Multiple rejections cluster right here and the mid-Sept high sits simply above. With A/D nonetheless agency, base case is a grind round $0.40 as provide is examined once more. Sustained closes over $0.41 would verify renewed demand reasonably than quick masking.
• $0.45–0.46 (breakout goal): The Sept vary spans ~$0.37–0.41 (~$0.04). A clear breakout and maintain above $0.41 initiatives to $0.45±0.01. 

For confidence, search for CMF to show optimistic and the whale-stablecoin share to roll over. These will sign rotation from money again into threat.

Bottom Line

September confirmed stealth accumulation and non-whale-led upside. XLM price in October doubtless revolves round $0.40–0.41. 

A $0.36–0.37 retest is feasible if threat urge for food stays muted, whereas $0.45–0.46 opens up if breadth and cash movement flip optimistic.

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