Analyst: Bitcoin Rebound Likely, But Losing $80K Risks “Much Tougher Period”
Bitcoin’s recent volatility has triggered short-term holder capitulation, flipping market sentiment from optimistic to destructive as promoting stress intensified throughout leveraged positions.
CryptoQuant analysis reveals acquainted patterns from earlier bull cycle corrections.
However, the market now stands at a vital crossroads the place the following transfer might decide whether or not this marks a short lived setback or the start of a protracted downturn.
While short-term technical indicators counsel an imminent rebound, analysts warn {that a} break of the $80,000 help stage would considerably enhance the chance of a a lot harder interval.
The present worth motion will be interpreted in two methods:
- Represents the underside of a correction throughout the ongoing bull cycle.
- The finish of the decline lies far forward if a bear market has actually begun.
Critical Support Level Holds Key to Market Direction
Technical indicators level towards diverging eventualities based mostly on Bitcoin’s skill to carry key worth thresholds.
CryptoQuant’s mixed long- and short-term SOPR evaluation exhibits that whereas a short-term rebound seems extremely doubtless, failure to keep up the $80,000 stage would open the door to prolonged weak spot.
However, analysts observe {that a} drop exceeding 70% from the all-time high, attribute of earlier bear cycles, seems unlikely this time round.
Meanwhile, on-chain metrics counsel potential undervaluation at present ranges.
The BTC NVT Golden Cross indicator fell beneath -1.6, traditionally indicating that Bitcoin’s market cap is undervalued relative to its on-chain exercise and is more likely to revert towards its imply.
This technical sign has beforehand recognized favorable entry factors for lengthy positions, although analysts warning towards utilizing leverage within the present risky setting.
Bitcoin dominance surged above 60% in early November earlier than stabilizing round 59% as capital consolidated into BTC throughout broader market drawdowns, in line with NYDIG.
The weekend confirmed the second-strongest restoration in 4 months following a tough week of promoting stress.
Index Classification Fears Amplify October Crash
Notably, new analysis reveals that MSCI’s October 10 session on probably excluding firms holding over 50% of property in Bitcoin from world indexes contributed to the dramatic market crash that liquidated $19 billion in 24 hours.
The proposal places Bitcoin-heavy corporations like MicroStrategy prone to compelled promoting by index funds monitoring MSCI benchmarks, creating structural uncertainty that hits an already fragile market coping with Trump tariffs, weak Nasdaq efficiency, and heavy leverage.
Michael Saylor responded on to MSCI issues, clarifying that MicroStrategy operates as a publicly traded firm with $500 million in ongoing software program income and Bitcoin-backed credit score merchandise, not as a passive fund or holding firm.
Saylor highlighted 5 new digital credit score devices totaling $7.7 billion in notional worth issued this yr, positioning the corporate as an energetic innovator fairly than merely a treasury operator.
JPMorgan amplified bearish sentiment days after the preliminary crash with a report emphasizing MSCI dangers.
However, the financial institution’s timing drew criticism from merchants accustomed to its historic sample of publishing bearish notes throughout market weak spot.
MSCI’s ultimate resolution is scheduled for January 15, 2026, with any coverage modifications taking impact the next month.
While some analysts argue the October crash resulted primarily from tariff bulletins and derivatives liquidations fairly than index classification fears, the session created extra structural uncertainty that will persist via the choice date.
This MSCI story will not be the reason for the Oct 10 crash.
Why?
Because the timeline doesn’t match the market conduct:
• The Oct 10 liquidation cascade started inside minutes of Trump’s tariff escalation.
• $19B liquidated in 24 hours will not be brought on by an obscure… https://t.co/pPulxFQFpg
— SightBringer (@_The_Prophet__) November 23, 2025
Long-Term Bulls Dismiss Four-Year Cycle Concerns
Despite current weak spot, outstanding analysts keep bullish long-term outlooks.
PlanB reiterated his 2019 forecast projecting Bitcoin’s market cap reaching $10 trillion, equal to $500,000 per coin, by 2028 following the present halving cycle.
His mannequin beforehand predicted that the 2020-2024 interval would take Bitcoin from a $100 billion market cap to $1 trillion, and it materialized as forecast.
However, technical analysts observe Bitcoin closed its second consecutive weekly candle beneath the 50-week EMA, a sample that preceded 50% drawdowns in each 2018 and 2022.
Critics of the four-year cycle concept argue that this framework could now not apply as Bitcoin matures and institutional adoption accelerates.
Analyst Ted Pillows urged the cycle could possibly be “lifeless,” whereas others keep that Bitcoin’s elementary adoption trajectory stays unchanged no matter short-term volatility or index classification debates.
Recovery above $90,000 and eventual breakout previous $100,000 would doubtless set off vital FOMO amongst merchants who bought, anticipating deeper lows round $75,000.
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