Analyst Insights: Bitcoin Could Drop More as Dollar Rebound Tightens Global Liquidity
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under $122,000 on Thursday as a strengthening U.S. greenback dampened danger sentiment and tightened world liquidity circumstances.
The pullback got here after a robust rally that lifted the world’s largest cryptocurrency to a brand new document above $126,000 earlier this week.
The Macroeconomic Pressure on Digital Assets
According to market analyst Jamie Coutts, the downturn displays macro forces fairly than inner weak point.
“Bitcoin’s dip isn’t mysterious — it’s macro,” he wrote on X earlier immediately, noting that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded towards the important thing 100–101 resistance vary after one in every of its steepest drops in a long time.
Coutts defined that the greenback’s rebound is squeezing liquidity worldwide, creating short-term stress on danger belongings such as BTC.
“The actual query: is that this the beginning of a brand new greenback cycle or simply the setup for the subsequent leg decrease?” requested the analyst. “Base case: liquidity tailwinds and an enhancing enterprise cycle maintain the outlook for danger belongings bullish into mid-2026,” he concluded.
At current, liquidity knowledge confirms this hyperlink. On October 9, CryptoQuant market technician Arab Chain confirmed that open curiosity on Binance had fallen by 7.9%, from $15.07 billion to $13.88 billion. According to him, it meant that merchants had been closing leveraged positions and exercising larger warning.
This drop in market leverage often occurs earlier than a interval of consolidation, that means that the earlier fast value advance was supported by speculative exercise that’s now winding down.
Regional Flows and Neutral Miner Sentiment Point to Balance
A report revealed by CryptoQuant in the direction of the top of final month revealed that Bitcoin’s route within the coming weeks would possible hinge on liquidity flows between Asian and U.S. markets.
According to the analytics platform, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the worth hole between U.S. and Asian exchanges, stays mildly optimistic, suggesting the existence of regular institutional demand, whereas reasonable Kimchi Premium readings in Korea point out restrained retail participation.
On-chain knowledge additionally paints a balanced image. As noted by market watcher Axel Adler Jr. on X earlier immediately, the Puell Multiple stands at 1.1 with Bitcoin close to $121,600, a degree suggesting miners are working simply above common profitability.
“The danger of capitulation is low, however there’s additionally no overheating like at cycle peaks,” Adler wrote, describing the setup as “impartial to bullish.”
Meanwhile, on the time of this writing, Bitcoin was buying and selling round $121,422, down 0.4% within the final 24 hours however up 1.2% weekly and almost 99% year-on-year, based on CoinGecko.
While the greenback’s rebound has quickly cooled the market, most analysts, together with Coutts, anticipate liquidity tailwinds and an enhancing enterprise cycle to maintain the broader outlook constructive into mid-2026.
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