Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Set To Close This Month In The Red, Here’s Why
Bitcoin’s restoration try has carried it back above $80,000 for the primary time since late January 2026, giving bulls a cause to argue that the worst of the current correction has handed. However, one crypto analyst believes the transfer is operating straight into the extent that might resolve how May ends for BTC.
In a technical outlook shared on X, crypto analyst Leshka warned that Bitcoin is more likely to shut May within the pink, pointing to a bear flag construction taking part in out on the each day chart.
Why Bitcoin Will Close May In Red
Leshka’s outlook on Bitcoin is predicated on its value motion since the February dump. The each day candlestick timeframe chart exhibits BTC recovering inside an ascending channel, with value grinding greater from the $60,000 area into the $80,000 vary on the time of writing. This restoration seems constructive as a result of the motion has triggered Bitcoin to print greater lows and better highs for the reason that February low.
However, Leshka interprets the same structure in another way. According to the analyst, the rising channel is a bear flag presently in formation. A bear flag often seems when value bounces upward in a managed channel after a significant drop, solely to later break beneath the construction and proceed decrease.
As proven within the chart beneath, Bitcoin’s current advance is proven urgent on the higher boundary of the ascending channel, and that is across the similar space the place the 200-day transferring common is positioned. Interestingly, Bitcoin has gone seven months without a daily close above this transferring common, and this makes it a significant line between a restoration rally and a confirmed pattern reversal.
At the time of writing, the 200 MA is round $82,000. The outlook right here depends upon how the Bitcoin price reacts to this level. The projected bearish path proposed by the analyst exhibits Bitcoin making one closing push into the resistance/200 MA confluence before reversing lower, shedding the channel, and falling again to the $58,000 to $56,000 vary by June.
BTC’s May Record Faces A Major Test
Bitcoin is already up 7.11% thus far in May 2026. Bitcoin’s month-to-month return desk exhibits that May has typically been one of its stronger months, with a mean acquire of 18.7% and a median return of 8.32% throughout earlier years. Bitcoin’s value motion for May within the final two years was constructive, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in each May 2024 and May 2025.
That historic power is what makes this prediction extra attention-grabbing. The downside is that the rally is now urgent into the precise resistance zone the place the 200-day transferring common is located.
Previous pink May closes have additionally appeared throughout tough market phases, together with a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka’s view is that 2026 may be part of that group if the present transfer fails on the high of the ascending channel.