ARK Invest Bets One Business Can Lift Tesla Stock to $4,400
Tesla inventory is down 18.16% since January 1, however ARK Invest’s mannequin places it close to $4,400 per share in 2031. That could be almost 12 occasions its October 19 shut of $368.06.
ARK ties about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise worth to a single enterprise exterior automotive gross sales. In its base case, ARK additionally sees Tesla promoting 10.2 million automobiles in 2031, up from 1.6 million in 2025.
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The Business Carrying ARK’s Forecast
That enterprise is robotaxis, Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing service, in accordance to ARK’s up to date mannequin.
In the base case, about 8.1 million robotaxis usher in $753 billion in internet ride-hail income in 2031. Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot, adds $212 billion from about 1 million items bought to exterior patrons.
ARK’s mannequin provides a brand new synthetic intelligence (AI) infrastructure line that drives Optimus efficiency. It expects Tesla’s cumulative AI infrastructure spending to attain $225 billion by 2031. That is up from about $7 billion on the finish of 2025.
The mannequin additionally sees whole income reaching $1.45 trillion in 2031. Those figures replace the Tesla mannequin ARK final revealed in 2024.
“ARK estimates that Robotaxi will account for ~80% of Tesla’s enterprise worth in 2031, down from ~90% in 2029 as introduced in our earlier mannequin revealed in 2024. The main cause is that we consider Optimus Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) is probably going to inflect as robotaxis proceed to proliferate,” ARK analysts Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire wrote.
How ARK’s Last Tesla Call Has Held Up
ARK’s 2024 model put Tesla at $2,600 per share in 2029 and picked 2025 because the probably robotaxi launch 12 months.
Tesla launched its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025 and has since expanded to 7 cities throughout 3 states. Its fleet has logged greater than 1 million unsupervised driverless miles in about 7 months.
Still, ARK calls Tesla’s robotaxi progress slower than anticipated. It partly used that tempo to set about 2031 as when Optimus might attain human-level ability.
What Has to Go Right Before Tesla Stock Reaches $4,400
ARK names a slower-than-expected robotaxi ramp as the primary threat to its forecast. It lists 4 doable causes.
- Regulatory delays, although ARK says this threat appears to be easing as robotaxis change into safer than human-driven automobiles
- A sudden departure by Elon Musk
- A pure catastrophe
- A pandemic
On timing, Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co. expects robotaxis to attain extra cities in early to mid-2027. He sees Optimus following later that 12 months.
ARK’s disclosure says its forecasts carry a bias towards constructive outcomes, and a few or all outcomes might land considerably decrease.
Tesla experiences third-quarter outcomes on October 21. Analysts tracked by Nasdaq expect earnings of $0.21 per share, down from $0.37 a 12 months earlier. Holders may also test the decision for robotaxi enlargement, Optimus timing, and AI spending, the inputs ARK’s mannequin rests on.
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