Arthur Hayes Explains How Bitcoin Has Outperformed Gold, Nasdaq 100 Since War Started
Bitcoin has gained 7% because the U.S.-Iran battle began on February 28, outpacing gold, which fell 2%, and the Nasdaq 100, which slipped by 0.5%.
This is in response to knowledge shared on X on March 12 by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Bitcoin Holds Ground While Traditional Assets Slip
Hayes posted a normalized efficiency chart evaluating Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28 to the current. All three property began on the identical baseline on that date, which allowed for a clear comparability of relative efficiency throughout almost two weeks.
On the chart, Bitcoin stood out in opposition to the normal protected haven asset and the broad tech index, gaining 7% as vitality costs spiked within the background over considerations about provide disruptions.
Nevertheless, BTC’s worth motion in that interval wasn’t precisely calm. When information of the United States’ and Israel’s strike on Iran first emerged, the asset dropped from round $66,000 to only above $63,000 earlier than reversing to $67,000 following the loss of life of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Market watchers on the London Crypto Club agreed with Hayes, saying that they had famous an analogous dynamic taking part in out when the Israel-Palestine battle escalated, and argued that BTC covers each the far left and much proper tails of the danger distribution, which means it could react to excessive eventualities in each instructions whereas spending most of its time buying and selling someplace within the center alongside equities.
As of as we speak, the primary cryptocurrency is buying and selling close to $70,000, with a 24-hour vary between $69,000 and $71,000, gaining lower than 2% on the day, per knowledge from CoinGecko. However, the image goes pink over seven days, with BTC down 3.5%, though its present worth is a 2% bump on the 30-day studying.
Looking on the wider context, on-chain knowledge analysts Arab Chain wrote that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index, which measures how a lot Bitcoin is instantly obtainable on the market on the platform, lately hit its highest studying since October 2025, at 5.10.
According to them, the studying suggests that provide on the alternate has thinned out, and this situation traditionally appeared throughout bullish worth phases when holders moved their BTC into chilly storage somewhat than leaving them on exchanges.
Hayes is Watching the Fed
Despite the relative outperformance, Hayes has insisted that he’s nonetheless not buying Bitcoin. In a current interview, the previous BitMEX CEO stated that he wouldn’t put any cash into BTC proper now, flagging the danger that if the United States’ battle with Iran dragged on too lengthy, it might set off a broad fairness sell-off that drags Bitcoin towards $60,000.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone offered a unique framing, suggesting that oil might go close to $120, Bitcoin to $90,000, Copper at $6 per pound, and silver close to $100 per ounce, which might signify a collective peak for threat property within the first quarter of 2026, with rising volatility presumably spilling into fairness markets.
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