Arthur Hayes Outlines Why Zcash Could Surge To $10,000–$20,000 Fast
Arthur Hayes thinks Zcash can transfer an order of magnitude quicker than most buyers count on—and he spelled out why in a Coin Bureau interview launched on November 3.
The former BitMEX CEO ties the brand new Zcash bull case to a three-part story that mixes technical maturation, seen shifts in on-chain habits, and a looming provide inflection. “I feel that 10% to twenty% of the worth of Bitcoin fairly shortly is one thing that Zcash may obtain,” he stated—an estimate that, at present Bitcoin costs, interprets to roughly $10,000–$20,000 per ZEC.
Why Zcash Could Skyrocket To $10,000-$20,000
For Hayes, the know-how is not the 2016 experiment that divided the market over ceremony theater and cryptographic belief. He recounted being “deep into Zcash in 2016” when BitMEX listed a pre-genesis futures market and spot costs briefly printed round “$3,000 a coin on Poloniex” earlier than provide crammed in.
What’s modified, he argues, is the removing—by protocol upgrades—of the unique single largest credibility drag. “One of the massive points with Zcash again then was this trusted setup difficulty… however basically, I feel it was the Halo 2 upgrade not too long ago eliminated or perhaps a number of years in the past eliminated that trusted setup difficulty.” That, in his telling, reframes Zcash from a intelligent however encumbered R&D challenge right into a privateness asset whose cryptography now clears the institutional sniff take a look at.
He {couples} that with direct user-level expertise. Hayes says he put in Zashi, Zcash’s flagship pockets, and used Near Intents flows to protect and swap, which he likened to an industrial-strength mixer. “When you do this, it’s basically like Tornado Cash on steroids,” he stated, emphasizing that the ensuing output asset “seems, but it surely’s not linked to some other transaction.”
Costs stay a friction—“It’s positively not low cost but”—however he factors to development information he has reviewed exhibiting a secular rise in precise privateness utilization: “the quantity of shielded transactions is approaching I feel 30%, up from like a number of share factors after I cared about Zcash a very long time in the past.” In different phrases, the privateness characteristic set is not only theoretically stronger; it’s getting used.
The demand narrative rests on a easy declare: within the age of on-chain forensics and AI-enabled sample recognition, true cash-like privateness is a product with differentiated utility. Hayes attracts a pointy line between pseudonymity and privateness. “I consider in privateness cash… I feel Bitcoin being synonymous is definitely a very good factor as a result of I would like to have the ability to monitor Bitcoin, however I additionally need to have web money the place there isn’t a traceability of that.”
He contrasts Zcash with Monero’s current headlines, citing stories that “the Japanese authorities had been capable of deanonymize Monero by… linking collectively totally different disparate elements of some data.”
Scarcity is the third pillar. Hayes flags the Zcash halving “developing in a number of weeks, November,” framing it because the timing catalyst that would supercharge reflexivity if investor consideration and liquidity arrive in tandem. The provide lower is just not your entire story for him—he dismisses halving dogma in Bitcoin—however he does view a synchronous demand narrative plus a mechanical issuance drop as unusually potent for a small-float asset when a privateness bid is already rising on-chain.
Liquidity and entry are exactly why he sees the setup as uneven. Zcash is just not broadly quotable, which is a danger and a chance. “I hit up… eight or 9 OTC brokers. Only two brokers would quote me Zcash,” he stated, describing how onerous it was to amass dimension by way of conventional venues. He expects that, if the value begins to development, the trail will run by way of permissionless rails somewhat than regulated exchanges. “If the value rises high sufficient… I should buy it on one in all these decentralized exchanges and that’ll be how you actually get entry… similar to how Bitcoin was again [then].”
Hayes additionally addresses the change in his personal posture, together with what catalyzed it. He credit a dinner throughout Token2049 with Naval Ravikant, who “started shilling me on Zcash,” prompting him to push previous his 2016-era objections and re-underwrite the protocol. “I purchased a number of million bucks on the spot at that time,” he stated, including that he stored shopping for “although I purchased it after the 80% pump when Naval despatched out that tweet.”
Hayes believes the upside can compress into weeks somewhat than years. In his phrases: “I’ve purchased plenty of it… I’m nonetheless shopping for it. I feel that that is in all probability going to be one in all my higher trades of the cycle.”
At press time, ZEC traded at $464.
