Arthur Hayes Predicts Hyperliquid’s HYPE Is Headed To $150 By August 2026

Arthur Hayes is making a high-conviction wager on Hyperliquid, arguing in a brand new essay that HYPE might climb to $150 by August 2026 even when the broader crypto backdrop stays weak. His case rests on a well-known exchange-token playbook, however up to date for a market the place decentralized perps, not centralized venues, are more and more capturing essentially the most precious buying and selling circulate.

Why Hayes Thinks Hyperliquid Can Reach $150

Hayes frames Hyperliquid because the standout asset in a sluggish or sideways market as a result of exchanges can keep generating fees no matter whether or not costs are rising. In his telling, that issues much more for Hyperliquid as a result of 97% of protocol income is used to buy back HYPE from the market. “Hyperliquid, the dominant perp DEX, is the biggest revenue-generating venture that isn’t a stablecoin,” he wrote. “No different venture in all of crypto palms as a lot a refund to token holders as Hyperliquid.”

His goal implies roughly a 5x transfer from about $30 on the time of writing. To get there, Hayes says Hyperliquid would want to carry 30-day annualized income to $1.4 billion, a degree he says the platform beforehand reached in August final 12 months. His mannequin additionally assumes the market will rerate the token from round 12 occasions earnings to roughly 25.2 occasions, nonetheless under or close to the vary he cites for main conventional change names.

A big a part of the thesis is that Hyperliquid doesn’t want an total enlargement in crypto derivatives exercise to develop. It solely must maintain taking share from centralized exchanges. Hayes argues {that a} 3.97 percentage-point enhance in market share can be sufficient for Hyperliquid to return to that $1.4 billion annualized income run fee.

The engine for that subsequent leg, in his view, is HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals itemizing framework. Users who stake 500,000 HYPE can launch markets utilizing the platform’s matching and margin engine, and Hayes factors to early traction in silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. “In solely 4 months, HIP-3 volumes account for near 10% of complete Hyperliquid revenues,” he wrote. “Permissionless listings had been all the time the holy grail of DEXs, and the speedy development in buying and selling volumes proves that is how Hyperliquid will differentiate itself from the pack.”

That is why his mannequin assumes HIP-3 income rises 160% over six months. He additionally flags HIP-4, which he says ought to allow permissionless prediction markets, as a doable upside kicker not included within the base case.
Competition is the principle objection Hayes tries to neutralize. He argues that headline volumes throughout perp DEXs will be distorted by wash buying and selling, factors farming and different incentives, making uncooked quantity a poor measure of actual utilization.

His most popular metric is ADV-to-OI, or common day by day quantity relative to open curiosity, as a result of open curiosity requires actual capital to be posted. On that foundation, he says Hyperliquid has essentially the most “actual” quantity among the many high 5 perp DEXs. He additionally says order-book snapshots for Bitcoin perps confirmed Hyperliquid was often the most affordable place to execute dimension as soon as slippage was included.

Hayes additionally spend time on token provide overhang, one other subject that had made him tactically bearish late final 12 months. He notes that the workforce distributed shut to twenty% of awarded tokens in November and December, however solely about 1% in January and February. “With that out of the way in which, the workforce drastically diminished distributions in an effort to assist HYPE rebound,” he wrote, whereas acknowledging that this half is speculative.

Even his stress case stays constructive. Hayes says that if the market solely pays a 12x earnings a number of and the workforce receives 9.91 million HYPE monthly, however income nonetheless recovers to $1.4 billion annualized, the token would nonetheless be value about $58, or roughly 75% above present ranges.

At press time, HYPE traded at $33.237.