ASTER Price Could Use Short Squeeze as a Rebound Catalyst — Is $1.39 Possible?
Aster (ASTER) worth has dropped nearly 40% over the previous 30 days, buying and selling near $1.10 after weeks of regular promoting. The downtrend seems heavy on the floor, however behind the scenes, a mixture of retail exits and short-heavy positioning may truly be establishing the subsequent rebound.
If ASTER manages to reclaim $1.39, the place a defining short-squeeze play would full, the construction may flip quick.
Retail Steps Away, But Crowded Shorts May Be Laying the Groundwork
Smaller buyers seem like stepping again. The Money Flow Index, which tracks how a lot cash is coming into or leaving the market, has dropped by over 50% since mid-October — falling from almost 80 to 38.27. That means retail merchants are not shopping for as aggressively. It normally alerts weak spot, however it could possibly additionally create situations the place massive merchants accumulate quietly earlier than a transfer greater.
Meanwhile, derivatives information present that the majority merchants are closely tilted to the brief aspect. That additionally confirms the bearish bias and the MFI dip.
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On Binance alone, ASTER’s brief liquidations whole $34.6 million, in comparison with $8.46 million in longs. This means nearly 80% of leveraged positions are betting on a additional drop — a closely biased setup that always results in sudden reversals when worth stress shifts.
The liquidation map means that if the ASTER price climbs above $1.39 (a 26% upmove from the present stage), all these brief positions can be compelled to shut. Such a squeeze may set off automated purchase orders and cascade into a sharper rally.
So, whereas retail cash is transferring out and sentiment seems weak, that very imbalance may find yourself driving the rebound as soon as the precise stage breaks.
One ASTER Price Level Could Flip the Setup Entirely
The 4-hour worth construction on ASTER’s chart offers a doable rationalization for the retail pullback. The token continues to be buying and selling inside a falling channel, a sample that normally alerts weak spot. That visible bearishness may very well be what’s holding retail merchants away.
However, below the floor, the setup may be quietly shifting. The identical falling channel additionally helps the brief squeeze chance mentioned earlier. The cluster of brief liquidations sits tightly between $1.15 and $1.39, which means that if ASTER begins climbing inside this zone, many merchants betting on the draw back would get worn out — accelerating the rebound.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures the power and velocity of worth actions — provides to this idea. Between October 11 and 21, the RSI made greater lows whereas ASTER’s price made lower lows. This bullish divergence normally seems when sellers are dropping energy, despite the fact that the value stays weak. That shift in momentum typically precedes rebounds, particularly when paired with high brief publicity.
If ASTER manages to climb above $1.39, it might not solely break the higher trendline of the falling channel — successfully cancelling the bearish setup — but in addition set off a full spherical of brief liquidations. That may push costs towards $1.88 and $2.22.
On the opposite hand, if the ASTER worth slips beneath $1.05, the rebound setup weakens. A detailed below $0.92 would break the decrease channel boundary. And it might expose the token to a deeper fall, invalidating the potential restoration.
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