ASTER Price Falls 70% as Users Vanish — Here’s Why Charts Still Point to 85% Rally
The ASTER value has fallen practically 70% from its post-launch highs, reflecting fading hype and rising criticism. User exercise and buying and selling quantity appear to have collapsed even quicker, elevating doubts about its restoration.
Yet beneath this weak spot, technical patterns and whale accumulation present a distinct image. These alerts recommend Aster should try a significant breakout regardless of the sharp decline in participation.
Aster User Activity and Trading Volume Collapse After Post-Launch Frenzy
ASTER (previously Astherus) has seen a dramatic collapse in person participation since its September 2025 token launch.
Daily lively addresses interacting with the Astherus Vault on BNB Chain peaked at 29,062 on September 24. As of February 19, that quantity has fallen to simply 146. This represents a 99.5% drop in day by day lively customers.
Disclaimer: These figures replicate Astherus Vault deposit and withdrawal exercise on BNB Chain particularly. Aster operates throughout BNB Chain, Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum, and complete platform-wide dealer exercise — together with perpetual and spot buying and selling — is probably going considerably larger than vault-only metrics recommend.
Trading exercise has adopted the identical development. Daily decentralized alternate quantity on BNB Chain, per knowledge pulled by way of Dune, has declined from a peak of $327.75 million to simply $17.31 million.
This marks a 94.7% drop in buying and selling quantity. On-chain buying and selling quantity displays actual shopping for and promoting occurring on the blockchain. When it falls sharply, it exhibits lowered participation and weaker demand.
This collapse aligns with Aster’s price decline. The token is down about 70% from its $2.41 high reached shortly after launch. The drop displays the top of a attainable hype-driven section.
However, the total image is extra advanced. Cumulative distinctive addresses interacting with the protocol have continued rising, reaching 572,252. This exhibits new customers are nonetheless getting into the ecosystem, even as day by day exercise declines.
More importantly, the remaining customers are committing massive capital. On February 19, complete deposits reached $11.8 million from simply 146 wallets. This equals a mean of about $80,000 per pockets. This exhibits that whereas retail participation has dropped, high-value traders stay lively.
Additionally, day by day withdrawals from the vault have remained at zero constantly for the reason that TGE, indicating that whereas fewer customers are depositing new capital, present capital is just not exiting the system.
Bullish Divergence and EMA Setup Show Early Reversal Signs
Despite the basic weak spot, technical indicators present early indicators of restoration. On the 12-hour chart, ASTER has formed a bullish divergence between December 7 and February 14. During this era, the worth made a decrease low. But the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made the next low.
RSI measures shopping for and promoting energy on a scale from 0 to 100. When the worth falls whereas the RSI rises, it signifies that promoting strain is weakening. This sample typically seems earlier than a value restoration begins. Aster has not but absolutely responded to this sign. This suggests the bullish strain should be constructing.
At the identical time, the 20-period exponential transferring common, or EMA, is approaching a bullish crossover above the 100-period EMA. EMA tracks the common value over time, giving extra weight to latest costs. When shorter EMAs cross above longer ones, it alerts strengthening momentum and a attainable development reversal.
The value can also be forming an inverse head-and-shoulders sample.
This is a bullish reversal construction displaying consumers slowly gaining management. The neckline of this sample sits close to $0.79. A breakout above this degree would affirm the restoration.
Whale Accumulation and Sentiment Collapse Create Opposing Forces
Large traders proceed accumulating ASTER regardless of weak public sentiment. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion ASTER have elevated their holdings from 2.75 billion to 2.96 billion ASTER since early February. This regular enhance exhibits sturdy confidence from the biggest holders.
Mid-sized whales holding between 1 million and 10 million ASTER have additionally elevated their holdings from 262.48 million to 278.96 million ASTER.
However, a few of these smaller whales have lately began lowering positions barely. This decline seems to be linked to the latest collapse in optimistic sentiment.
Market sentiment has dropped sharply. Positive sentiment scores fell from 10.39 on February 12 to close to zero lately.
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This displays rising criticism and unfavorable notion round Aster’s declining exercise, which, based mostly on obtainable knowledge, seems considerably exaggerated however not solely unfounded.
This creates a battle out there. Large whales proceed accumulating, displaying long-term confidence. But smaller traders have gotten extra cautious as sentiment weakens. This divergence between whale conduct and public sentiment typically seems close to main turning factors.
ASTER Price Levels That Could Trigger an 85% Breakout
The ASTER price now sits near a critical technical level. The neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders sample is situated at $0.79. A breakout above this degree would affirm the bullish reversal. If this breakout occurs, the subsequent resistance ranges seem at $0.92, $1.06, and $1.29. The full breakout goal sits close to $1.46. This would characterize an 85% rally from present ranges.
However, draw back dangers nonetheless exist. If Aster falls under $0.68, the bullish setup would weaken. A deeper drop under $0.39 would invalidate the sample utterly and ensure continued bearish strain.
For now, Aster stays at a turning level. User exercise and sentiment have collapsed sharply. But whale accumulation, bullish divergence, and reversal patterns recommend restoration stays attainable. The subsequent transfer above $0.79 or under $0.39 will probably resolve Aster’s long-term route.
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