Bank of America Sets a New Target For Gold Price By the End of 2026
Bank of America (BofA) expects gold under $4,000 over the subsequent three months. The financial institution forecasts a mean of $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter.
Gold traded round $4,100 on Wednesday after hotter US inflation information. The metallic now sits roughly 27% under its late-January all-time high of $5,598.
Why Bank of America Sees Gold Below $4,000
BofA’s demand tracker reveals purchases by key consumers fell 16.6% year-over-year. Indian imports dropped 77.8%, whereas Chinese imports rose 39.3%.
Jewelry demand additionally weakened in the second quarter. World Gold Council data reveals declines of 25% in the US, 15% in India, and 28% in China.
Meanwhile, gold ETFs maintain a document 4,256 metric tons. BofA warns these positions might add promoting strain if traders begin to liquidate.
Central banks pose one other threat. The financial institution flagged it immediately in its October 12 observe.
“With the Middle East battle escalating once more, there’s a threat that central banks might resume gross sales.”
Bank of America analysts
Turkey bought a internet 82 tons and Russia 56 tons by means of August, in response to WGC. Still, central banks added a internet 39 tons in August alone.
The Fed Holds the Key to Gold’s Bottom
September shopper costs rose 3.7% year-over-year, above the 3.6% forecast. Core inflation reached 2.6%, additionally beating expectations.
The Federal Reserve raised charges to three.75%–4% in September. Officials signaled another hike this 12 months.
BofA says gold could backside solely as soon as the Fed exits its tightening cycle. A pause in the greenback’s rally and easing Iran warfare issues would additionally assist.
Renewed foreign money debasement fears supply a second path greater. Some merchants already learn the financial institution’s warning as a contrarian sign.
BofA Still Sees Gold at $5,000 in 2027
BofA’s forecast turns greater subsequent 12 months. The financial institution sees $4,750 in the first quarter of 2027 and $5,000 in the second and third quarters.
Goldman Sachs holds a comparable view. It lower its end-2026 goal to $4,650 in September however saved $5,400 for 2027.
Gold Price Prediction Points to $3,950 Support
The each day chart helps BofA’s near-term warning. Gold has traded largely beneath a bearish Supertrend since January, aside from a temporary August flip.
A head-and-shoulders sample fashioned between August and September. Its neckline close to $4,330 broke in mid-September, projecting a goal close to $3,950.
That goal aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $3,943. The $3,900 to $4,000 zone already held as help in June and July, regardless of earlier selloffs.
Resistance sits at $4,300 to $4,400. The 0.382 Fibonacci stage at $4,333, the 50-day shifting common, and the Supertrend all cluster there.
A break under $3,900 might open a deeper bear pattern. BofA earlier flagged a doable fourth-quarter low of $3,750.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 39 and retains falling. However, a bullish divergence could kind if worth assessments $3,950 whereas RSI holds greater.
A restoration would first meet the $4,750 to $4,800 zone, close to BofA’s first-quarter 2027 forecast. Thursday’s producer worth information might resolve which method gold breaks.
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