Ben Cowen Says Bitcoin Has 65% Chance of Extending Bear Market, Watching $53,000
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, says there’s a 65% probability Bitcoin’s (BTC) cycle low nonetheless lies forward. That retains his bear market thesis alive regardless of a pointy summer time rally.
Cowen made the remark in a video interview. He pointed to Bitcoin’s realized worth close to $53,000 as the extent bears nonetheless want to check earlier than calling the underside.
Why Cowen Still Leans Bearish
Bitcoin traded close to $78,300 at publication time, down 1.7% over the previous 24 hours, in keeping with BeInCrypto data. Cowen made his feedback after Bitcoin had already rallied roughly 40% off its summer time low.
Cowen mentioned that rally alone doesn’t affirm a backside. He famous Bitcoin posted comparable or bigger bounces in 2018 and 2022. It nonetheless fell once more within the fourth quarter of every midterm yr.
Cowen mentioned assuming the sample breaks this time would repeat a mistake merchants made in prior cycles. He added that holds even when his present name finally ends up fallacious.
“I’d say it’s most likely 65% probability the low happens sooner or later and 35% probability it’s behind us.”
Benjamin Cowen
Cowen pointed to Bitcoin’s realized worth, the community’s combination price foundation, as a historic marker for cycle lows. That determine sits close to $53,000, a stage BeInCrypto’s earlier Q4 bottom coverage additionally flagged as a key threshold.
Every prior midterm-year bear market bottomed under that line, Cowen mentioned. The actual month it occurred has different broadly throughout cycles.
The analyst has lengthy argued Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle pattern. Lows usually type in a midterm yr’s fourth quarter, he mentioned. An October low would maintain that sample intact.
What Comes Next
Cowen added that clearing October and not using a decrease low would begin to shift the chances towards the bulls. He mentioned the larger threat is time-based capitulation moderately than a particular worth goal.
He expects some headwinds for Bitcoin over roughly the following month and a half. As the fourth quarter progresses, he mentioned he expects extra bears to show bullish.
If the sample breaks and bears capitulate, Cowen mentioned he would drop his bearish bias. He expects to show bullish once more heading into 2027, regardless of how the remainder of this yr performs out.
Cowen mentioned a dollar-cost-averaging strategy tends to work higher than making an attempt to pinpoint the precise low. He added that this isn’t monetary recommendation.
Until then, he’s treating $53,000 as the extent to look at moderately than assuming the underside has already handed.
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