Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin 69-73 Days From Bottom, But Does BTC Still Follow Cycles?
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) is between 69 and 73 days from its subsequent cycle backside. He bases that estimate on Bitcoin’s present cycle-day rely of 1,363.
The prior two cycles bottomed on day 1,432 and day 1,436, respectively. That locations Cowen’s projected low close to October 2026.
Why Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottom Call Faces Pushback
Cowen’s day-count model has grow to be a go-to reference for merchants. Historically, he has argued the present cycle topped inside per week of the prior two cycles. He used that timing to defend the four-year cycle framework.
He has made that case earlier than.
Bitcoin topped inside one week of when it traditionally tops, regardless of the narratives for calling the four-year cycle useless.
Cowen made the remark earlier this yr, and remains to be holding to it because it approaches.
Bitcoin is Showing Signs
Cowen has additionally flagged August and September as traditionally weak months. In previous midterm election years, Bitcoin fell a mean of roughly 10% in August. September has sometimes added additional, smaller losses earlier than any restoration started.
However, not each analyst agrees the previous clock nonetheless applies. Fidelity has pointed to new lows in one-year volatility showing simply months after Bitcoin’s file high. That sample, the agency says, by no means confirmed up in earlier cycles.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has gone additional. He argues that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and company treasury demand have weakened the previous halving cycle. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook made the same case, citing regular ETF inflows as proof the boom-bust sample not holds cleanly.
Still, Cowen’s recent research paper argues the ground has barely moved throughout 4 cycles, whilst blow-off tops have flattened. Whether that holds by means of October will determine which camp was proper this time.
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