Bets on Polymarket Show Bitcoin (BTC) $200K Odds Are Slimmer Than Alien Discovery

Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and main crypto property succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s newest tweet has injected a contemporary dose of skepticism into the Bitcoin narrative.

The decentralized prediction market humorously famous that the chances of aliens being confirmed this 12 months (6%) barely surpass Bitcoin hitting $200,000 (5%). Yet beneath the levity, Polymarket’s knowledge highlighted a extra severe near-term danger.

Market Panic

Polymarket is seeing a 52% probability that Bitcoin may crash under $100,000 this month. This is according to the broader market unease, as crypto analyst Ted Pillow not too long ago acknowledged that Bitcoin has already misplaced its vital $108,000 assist stage, which has left a minimal buffer till $101,000-$102,000. Pillow acknowledged {that a} reclaim of $110,000 may set off a short-term bounce, however in any other case, merchants ought to brace for extra ache earlier than aid arrives.

Adding to the cautionary sentiment, Doctor Profit, one other in style market analyst, called the present surroundings the “early section of the bear market,” which is seeing intense misleading mini-rallies and sharp draw back strikes. He predicted the macro backside would finally settle between $60,000-$70,000.

According to Doctor Profit, merchants ought to anticipate growing promoting stress, with the Fear & Greed Index possible reaching excessive worry ranges within the coming days, additional backed by the crimson numbers throughout the charts. As such, these elements paint an image of a market navigating a precarious steadiness.

“Remember, useless cat bounces are the largest enemy for us shorts. Play them or ignore them, however don’t struggle them.”

Defensive Stance

Macro uncertainty continues to weigh closely on Bitcoin, and Glassnode revealed a serious change in sentiment throughout markets and derivatives. Over the previous week, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by greater than 20%, reclaiming a part of its “store-of-value” attraction. This was indicative of buyers’ rising warning towards crypto.

This warning has spilled over into the choices market. Short-dated BTC volatility spiked sharply in a single day, whereas front-end choices traded round 50 vol as merchants paid up for quick draw back safety. BTC skew nonetheless behaves like a macro asset, favoring places – draw back safety stays pricier than upside publicity amidst defensive positioning. The market is balanced, as seen with some accounts rolling safety decrease, others promoting volatility on the dip, and some selectively shopping for low cost calls. Overall, the tone is cautious however not one-sided.

Broader volatility metrics affirm this defensiveness. Put-heavy skew, bid wing vols, and robust demand for tail hedges point out merchants stay targeted on draw back danger. Year-end upside publicity has cooled as draw back vol continues to dominate. For these keen to take dangers, promoting places or put spreads to finance November topside stays a viable technique.

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