Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Marks A Turning Point: Analyst Explains Why This Time Is Different
Bitcoin has been experiencing heightened volatility after reaching a brand new all-time high of $126,000 earlier this month. The value has since entered a consolidation part, hovering close to the $120,000 stage as merchants seek for recent demand. Market sentiment stays divided — some analysts count on Bitcoin to stabilize and put together for an additional leg up, whereas others warn of a doable drop under present ranges as momentum cools.
This raises the query that’s echoing throughout the market: Could this be the primary really completely different Bitcoin cycle? According to high analyst Darkfost, conventional patterns might not apply this time. “Some declare {that a} -80% to -90% bear market will happen as normal,” he explains, “however sure knowledge factors counsel that this cycle is being constructed on new foundations.”
Unlike earlier cycles pushed by retail hypothesis, this one seems more and more influenced by institutional participation, ETFs, and long-term holders, all contributing to decreased volatility and deeper market maturity. While corrections stay a part of Bitcoin’s DNA, structural adjustments in demand and liquidity could also be redefining how this cycle unfolds. Whether Bitcoin breaks increased or faces a serious retracement, one factor is obvious — this market is evolving sooner than ever earlier than.
Bitcoin’s Fourth Cycle: A Stable and Mature Market Phase
According to high analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin’s present cycle stands out as essentially the most secure in its historical past. During this bullish part, BTC has not skilled a single correction exceeding 28%, a stark distinction to earlier cycles the place violent retracements have been widespread. Most drawdowns have remained inside a modest 10%–20% vary, and solely 4 corrections have surpassed 25%, marking this because the least risky Bitcoin cycle to this point.
For perspective, between 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin endured a number of 50% drawdowns, creating sharp waves of concern and euphoria that outlined the market’s rhythm. Today, the image could be very completely different. Volatility has dropped to its lowest ranges for the reason that final bear market, reflecting a brand new stage of market maturity. As Darkfost factors out, this decline in volatility has additionally led to a tightening of the Bollinger Bands’ customary deviation, signaling rising value stability and disciplined market conduct.
This shift means that Bitcoin’s market construction has essentially developed. It now not mirrors the chaotic, retail-driven cycles of the previous. Instead, adoption continues to climb, regulation has change into extra favorable, and, most significantly, the investor base is altering. Large institutional gamers and company treasuries — significantly within the United States — are getting into the market, absorbing promoting stress that when triggered deep corrections.
As a consequence, Bitcoin’s fourth cycle is rewriting the rulebook, constructed on deeper liquidity, stronger palms, and long-term conviction reasonably than hypothesis. This stands out as the first cycle the place Bitcoin transitions from a risky asset to a globally acknowledged, maturing retailer of worth.
Price Consolidation Continues Around $121K
Bitcoin (BTC) is at present buying and selling round $121,800, consolidating after a risky week that noticed robust resistance close to the $126,000 all-time high. The 4-hour chart exhibits that BTC is transferring sideways inside a slender vary, struggling to reclaim the short-term 50 EMA (blue line), which has now was dynamic resistance.
The rapid assist stage sits close to $120,000, whereas the important thing horizontal stage at $117,500 — highlighted in yellow — stays essentially the most essential zone to keep up the broader bullish construction. As lengthy as the worth holds above this space, the uptrend stays intact, with potential for a renewed push towards the $124,000–$126,000 zone.
Momentum indicators counsel that patrons are nonetheless defending important assist, although market indecision dominates. The 100 and 200 EMAs (inexperienced and pink traces) proceed trending upward, reinforcing mid- and long-term bullish sentiment. However, failure to shut above $122,500 within the coming classes might expose Bitcoin to deeper retracements, with eyes on $118,000 as the subsequent demand space.
The chart suggests a wholesome consolidation part after a serious breakout. A decisive transfer above $123K would verify renewed bullish momentum, whereas a breakdown under $120K might mark the start of a deeper correction part.
Featured picture from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com