Bitcoin At A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Level As Cycle Faces First Real Test: Analyst

Bitcoin is sitting on its first true make-or-break help of the cycle, and the market is now in what crypto analyst Dom (@traderview2) calls a “fork within the highway.” His message is direct: if Bitcoin can’t stabilize and reclaim key ranges shortly, the construction that has outlined this whole run breaks for the primary time — and he’s positioning for draw back.

“This is the final probability for Bitcoin to carry this degree and to push larger,” he mentioned in a stay evaluation stream on October 29. “If Bitcoin doesn’t see its footing right here over the following week or two, I believe that that is going to interrupt down. And I believe that we’re going to see the mid to low $90,000s once more.”

Final Stand For Bitcoin’s Staircase Rally

Dom’s base case just isn’t a traditional crypto winter. He doesn’t count on an 80% wipeout. Instead, he’s warning that the following few days will determine if Bitcoin can defend the “staircase” construction that has held all cycle. If that breaks, he expects a managed however persistent retrace — not a collapse, however not continuation both.

“I don’t assume that we’re going right into a yr and a half bear market like we all the time have,” he mentioned. “Those are a factor of the previous… except the world goes right into a horrible recession like Great Depression kind factor.”

The key line he’s looking forward to Bitcoin is roughly the $111,000–$114,000 area, which he referenced within the context of reclaimed resistance and VWAP ranges. “If it doesn’t regain that in a fast timeframe, I believe we have to prepare for a bigger breakdown and that’s going to be sub $100K,” he mentioned. His first goal on breakdown is close to $98,500, which strains up with what he known as the 12-month rolling VWAP — “our bull market band this whole cycle.”

Below that, he’s taking a look at whether or not patrons step in aggressively or in no way. That response, he says, will determine if $95,000 is an area wipeout and reset, or the beginning of one thing worse.

The cause he considers this second “do or die” is that, not like earlier legs within the cycle, Bitcoin is now not bouncing immediately from help. Throughout the advance, Dom says, Bitcoin adopted a single clear sample: break a significant resistance, retest it as soon as, and explode larger. “Any time that we cleared resistance, we held that as help,” he mentioned. “It’s been an ideal sample all through the complete cycle.”

That habits has now modified. After the October 10 liquidation event and the temporary energy across the Fed resolution and China headlines, Bitcoin stalled. It broke above resistance, then simply sat there for “4 or 5 months,” did not develop, and is now shedding momentum at the very same degree patrons beforehand defended with urgency.

“Somebody doesn’t consider that this can be a low cost,” he mentioned. “We’ve had so many bounces on the identical worth and patrons simply aren’t . What’s going to get them ? Logically decrease costs.”

This is traditional public sale principle for him. In robust uptrends, the primary retest of a key degree is purchased immediately as a result of members see it as low cost. Now, he says, order movement reveals hesitation, not urgency. That is how tops really kind in crypto: not one dramatic candle, however patrons refusing to defend the identical degree for the fifth time.

He additionally pointed on to shallow liquidity on main spot books. On Coinbase, he mentioned, “these order books are empty… no person’s saving us down right here.” He described solely skinny passive bid curiosity close to $100,000 — “that’s solely 170 Bitcoin. That’s actually not a lot” — and heavy energetic promote stress on Binance. “People are actively market promoting… and we don’t have anybody on the opposite facet to soak up that stress.” His conclusion: that is precisely the setup that precedes quick air-moves decrease if a key degree breaks.

That fragility just isn’t hypothetical. Dom says the October 10 crash already proved how dependent crypto nonetheless is on a handful of market makers. “We principally slid by means of an empty order e-book,” he mentioned. “It proves how fragile crypto actually is… If their threat techniques say, ‘Hey, we’re not going to cite this,’ markets are going to crash like they did.”

No 80% Crash This Time

Still, Dom just isn’t within the “cycle is over without end” camp. He thinks the market has modified structurally and that almost all merchants are nonetheless utilizing a 2021 psychological mannequin in a 2025 market.

He argues Bitcoin is now an institutional instrument, not a purely speculative retail instrument. “This proper right here has been a really regular staircasing form of development,” he mentioned. “The distinction… is that this was actually pushed due to establishments. I believe the establishments have been the principle driver behind this cycle… ETFs launched and we’ve form of simply staircased our approach up.”

That sluggish, managed advance is why he rejects the concept Bitcoin will repeat the traditional -80% drawdown after topping. He calls the brand new movement “parked cash” — capital from ETFs, corporate treasuries, allocators, and “monetary advisors, 401k cash,” that isn’t actively panic-selling each 5% transfer. “They’re not calling you each different day and saying, ‘Oh, , it’s down 5%. Let’s promote it,’” he mentioned.

He additionally identified that this cycle barely doubled the previous all-time high as an alternative of going vertical, and even printed new highs earlier than the halving. In his view, if the upside blow-off was muted and institutional, the draw back is more likely to be muted and institutional.

At press time, BTC traded at $110,280.