Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: When and How Low Will BTC Go?

The begin of This autumn 2025 was fairly optimistic because the so-called ‘Uptober’ was destined to deliver new beneficial properties and huge rallies. And, it did a minimum of for the primary week or so. Bitcoin skyrocketed to a brand new all-time high of over $126,000.

However, all of it went horribly improper in the next few days, particularly after the October 10 crash, when over $19 billion value of liquidations hit overleveraged merchants. Nothing was actually the identical after that calamity, which continues to be being cited as the start of the tip.

The cryptocurrency has plunged by over 30% since then and now struggles under $90,000, which has turn into an insurmountable resistance. Analysts are predominantly aligned in believing that the bear market has really began, and the query now’s when the BTC backside might be.

364 Days From the Top?

Obviously, each analyst has a special principle on this, together with Doctor Profit, who said that BTC will drop to someplace round $40,000 by Q3 2026. In this text, although, we are going to concentrate on Ali Martinez’s opinion, which, to be honest, is just not all that totally different.

He primarily based his evaluation on the cycle high and backside principle. As beforehand reported, bitcoin has the tendency to achieve a cycle high exactly 1,064 days after its earlier backside, which was the case between the January 2015 and December 2017 bull market, in addition to between December 2018 and November 2021 rally. Interestingly, the early October 2025 ATH was also after 1,064 days.

Consequently, Martinez assumed that the bear market had began on that history-making date and had arrange the stage for the next long-term correction. He famous that these intervals final 364 days (or virtually a complete 12 months) and the potential backside ought to be round October 2026.

How Low Will BTC Go?

Continuing with the identical historical past lesson, Martinez asserted that BTC had plunged by 84% through the 2017-2018 bear market and by 77% through the 2021-2022 one. If we common that quantity to round 80%, the following market backside ought to see the cryptocurrency dropping to round $37,500.

While this sounds certainly scary in the meanwhile, it’s value noting that this projection is predicated on the favored 4-year cycle principle. However, many different analysts have claimed up to now a number of months that BTC has snapped out of it and it operates beneath totally different guidelines, given its institutional rise, ETF merchandise, DATs, and authorities backing.

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