Bitcoin bear market ends when 3 signals flip, and one is already starting to twitch
Julio Moreno, head of analysis at CryptoQuant, not too long ago declared that Bitcoin is in a bear market that might prolong via the third quarter of 2026.
He’s not alone. Matt Hougan at Bitwise and a rising refrain of institutional voices are utilizing the “bear” label extra freely than at any level since early 2023.
Yet the identical analysts typically hedge with construction: many establishments are holding or including publicity whilst they acknowledge the regime shift.
This creates a definitional drawback. If a bear market now not means capitulation and exodus, what does it imply?
And if the well-known four-year cycle is lifeless, as VanEck, K33 Research, and 21Shares have every argued in latest stories, how lengthy does a bear market final when the previous calendar now not applies?
What configures a bear market
The conventional finance definition for a bear market provides a starting level.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission defines a bear market as a broad index falling 20% or extra over not less than two months. Bitcoin cleared that threshold months in the past.
From its early October 2025 peak above $126,000, BTC has declined by roughly 41% to roughly $74,000 as of Feb. 3. By the headline customary, the case is closed.
However, Coinbase Institutional analysis explicitly calls the 20% threshold “somewhat arbitrary” and much less relevant to crypto, the place 20% swings can occur with out a true regime change.
In observe, analysts depend on a three-part dashboard: value development, positioning and derivatives, and demand and liquidity.
Price development is essentially the most seen. CryptoQuant leans closely on the 365-day shifting common as a boundary marker.
Bitcoin presently trades beneath that degree, which sits round $101,448. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, a composite measure of on-chain well being, registered 20 out of 100, described as excessive bear territory.
Coinbase has used the 200-day shifting common in previous cycle analyses to qualify bear regimes, and Bitcoin stays beneath that threshold as properly.
Positioning and derivatives supply a second sign. Glassnode’s latest Week On-Chain stories doc rotation toward downside protection, bearish skew in choices markets, and situations that improve draw back sensitivity, together with seller gamma beneath zero.
When merchants pay premiums to hedge towards additional declines slightly than to seize upside, the market is behaving defensively.
Demand and liquidity present the structural context. CoinShares estimates that giant holders have sold approximately $29 billion in Bitcoin since October. Digital asset exchange-traded merchandise noticed roughly $440 million in year-to-date outflows.
CryptoQuant and MarketWatch characterize the present regime as weak demand mixed with contracting stablecoin liquidity, traditional substances of a bear market.
The newest Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode world investor survey, carried out from Dec. 10, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2026, discovered that 26% of institutions now describe the market as being within the bear part. The outcomes are up from simply 2% within the prior survey.
Yet the identical survey revealed that 62% of establishments held or elevated internet lengthy publicity since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.
This disconnect is the defining characteristic of the 2026 bear market. It’s not about capitulation—it is about regime recognition whereas sustaining structural publicity.
The label “bear market” is turning into much less about who is fleeing and extra about who is nonetheless shopping for, whilst sentiment stays horrible.
When does this bear market finish?
Defining the top of a bear market requires readability about what “end” means.
The most rigorous method treats it as a regime shift slightly than a sense. Analysts determine three sensible triggers: development reclamation, demand inflection, and danger urge for food normalization.
Trend reclaim happens when Bitcoin regains and holds above long-term shifting averages, such because the 200-day or 365-day, for a number of weeks.
Demand inflection means exchange-traded fund and exchange-traded product flows shift from subdued or unfavorable to sustained inflows, and large-holder distribution slows.
Risk urge for food normalization means choices skew returns to balanced ranges, with much less demand for draw back safety and leverage constructing sustainably.
The forward-looking eventualities cluster into three time horizons, every supported by particular analyst commentary.
The first state of affairs is a traditional crypto winter that extends via mid or late 2026.
Julio Moreno has recognized $70,000 over three to six months and $56,000 within the second half of 2026 as a deeper potential path. This state of affairs assumes demand stays weak, flows stay unfavorable, and Bitcoin fails repeated makes an attempt to reclaim its shifting averages. Bear-market rallies occur however fail to maintain.
The second state of affairs is a shorter, shallower bear market lasting three to six months, characterised by uneven, range-bound value motion, adopted by enhancing situations within the second half of 2026.
CoinShares explicitly expects a uneven three-to-six-month interval, with medium-term constructive situations as whale promoting exhausts by mid-2026.
In this framing, the bear market is extra about time than depth: a regime during which upside is capped till demand reverses, however the ground holds.
The third state of affairs treats the bear market as a liquidity-wave occasion slightly than a calendar-based cycle.
The bear ends when demand and liquidity re-accelerate, no matter what the halving clock says. This maps straight onto CryptoQuant’s demand-led framing and avoids determinism stemming from halving. It acknowledges that the previous playbook might now not apply.
| Scenario | Horizon | What it seems like | Primary triggers to watch | What would invalidate it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic winter (Moreno path) | Mid/late 2026 | Failed rallies; deeper retests | Sustained failure to reclaim 200D/365D; weak flows; persistent draw back hedging | Reclaim + maintain above MAs and flows flip sustainably constructive |
| Short, shallow bear (CoinShares path) | 3–6 months | Range-bound chop; capped upside | Stabilizing ETP flows; whale promoting slows/exhausts | Breakdown beneath key assist zones with rising liquidation strain |
| Liquidity-wave regime (publish 4-year cycle) | Variable | Ends when liquidity/demand turns, not a calendar | Global liquidity proxies, actual yields, stablecoin liquidity, hedging demand | Liquidity improves however BTC nonetheless can’t reclaim lengthy MAs (suggests structural weak point) |
Is this bear market smaller than previous cycles?
The present drawdown of roughly 40% is already small in contrast to the stereotypical over 70% crypto winters of prior cycles.
However, a number of analysts’ draw back eventualities cluster round $55,000 to $60,000, implying a complete drawdown nearer to the mid-50% vary if realized.
That would nonetheless be smaller than historic extremes however significant sufficient to qualify as a bear market by any customary.
The market is additionally more and more bifurcated. Bitcoin holds structural management, whereas a lot of the remainder of the crypto market performs far worse.
The Coinbase and Glassnode report emphasize this by way of dominance metrics and defensive positioning habits. The 2026 market is Ok-shaped, and the “bear market” might have an effect on asset courses inconsistently.
The four-year cycle is over, however what replaces it?
VanEck argued in 2025 that the four-year cycle had broken and that the previous playbook was much less dependable.
K33 Research revealed a report titled “4-year cycle is lifeless, lengthy dwell the king,” which lays out why the regime changed.
21Shares describes the cycle as evolving, potentially extending to five years, as liquidity waves lengthen and institutional participation deepens.
What replaces the four-year clock is a liquidity-and-flows clock. This consists of actual yields, world liquidity impulses, flows of exchange-traded funds and exchange-traded merchandise, stablecoin liquidity, and hedging demand.
CoinShares explicitly frames Bitcoin’s latest dislocation by way of relationships with valuable metals and macro liquidity. Coinbase and Glassnode emphasize a defensive derivatives posture as a real-time regime indicator.
The implication for bear market period is that bear markets might turn into extra frequent however much less extreme. Instead of existential winters, the market might expertise extra frequent regime drawdowns if institutional flows present a ground.
Rallies can nonetheless fail till demand and liquidity flip, however the underlying construction might forestall the type of multi-year capitulation that has outlined previous cycles.
This creates a paradox. The bear market might last more in calendar time however inflict much less injury in proportion phrases. Or it might finish sooner if demand inflects earlier than the previous cycle logic would predict.
Either method, the clock that ruled Bitcoin for a decade now not governs it.
The guidelines issues greater than the calendar
In 2026, calling a bear market is not one metric, however a guidelines.
Trend breaks, hedging demand, and a demand-liquidity rollover all level in the identical course. Bitcoin is in a bear regime by most frameworks that matter.
When it ends relies upon much less on the halving calendar and extra on the timing of the demand cycle. CoinShares expects three to six months of chop. CryptoQuant sees potential for deeper lows within the second half of the 12 months.
Both may very well be proper at completely different moments if the regime oscillates slightly than resolves cleanly.
The four-year cycle is dead, however the query of when this bear ends is not unanswerable. It ends when Bitcoin reclaims its long-term shifting averages, when institutional flows flip constructive, and when choices markets cease pricing for cover.
Until then, the market is in a regime the place upside is capped, and endurance is required. Even if establishments maintain shopping for whereas calling it a bear.
The publish Bitcoin bear market ends when 3 signals flip, and one is already starting to twitch appeared first on CryptoSlate.
