Bitcoin bear market OR bear trap? Here’s what your ‘quants’ are saying

Bitcoin’s sustained value above $100,000 was speculated to sign its arrival as a mature institutional asset. Instead, its sudden reversal beneath that threshold has unsettled merchants and revived fears of one other crypto winter.

On Nov. 4, Bitcoin briefly dipped to its lowest level since May at $99,075, earlier than recovering to roughly $102,437 as of press time. Despite the worth restoration, BTC continues to be down roughly 3% from the day’s peak of $104,777, in line with CryptoSlate information.

This value efficiency resulted in Bitcoin lagging US Treasuries for the primary time this yr, erasing one in every of 2025’s hottest macro trades.

Yet analysts say the transfer displays a structural reset quite than a systemic collapse.

Why is Bitcoin value falling?

Long-term holders have performed a big function in driving the flagship digital asset’s downward pattern by realizing earnings at report charges.

Bitcoin analyst James Van Straten noted that this cohort has offered greater than 362,000 BTC, equal to roughly 3,100 BTC per day, since July. According to him, that tempo has quickened over the previous three weeks to just about 9,000 BTC each day.

Another analyst, Johan Bergman, suggested the full could possibly be even larger. He calculated that the LTH cohort’s cumulative realized earnings elevated from $600 billion in June to $754 billion as of at present.

According to him:

“Assuming they offered at a mean value of $110,000, that’s about $72,000 in revenue per coin. So, $154B / $72K ≈ 2.1 million cash offered.”

Data from James Check at CheckOnChain additional reveals that Bitcoin at the moment faces $34 billion in month-to-month sell-side stress as older cash return to exchanges.

That influx has largely offset weakening demand from ETFs and company treasuries, a few of which have shifted focus to share buybacks as an alternative of recent crypto allocations..

At the identical time, speculative exercise can be fading within the market.

Data from Glassnode exhibits that the funding charges for perpetual futures have decreased by 62% since August, from roughly $338 million to $127 million per thirty days, reflecting decrease leverage.

The agency acknowledged:

“This underscores a transparent macro downtrend in speculative urge for food, as merchants develop reluctant to pay curiosity to take care of lengthy publicity.”

Meanwhile, the fading enthusiasm comes amid tightening international liquidity.

The extended US authorities shutdown, the joint-longest on report, has immobilized roughly $150 billion within the Treasury General Account, eradicating liquidity that circulates sometimes by means of threat property.

BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes noted that because the debt ceiling enhance in July, greenback liquidity has declined by roughly 8%, whereas Bitcoin has decreased by 5%, reinforcing the correlation between the 2.

$95K turns into the market’s stress level

Due to this wave of promoting exercise, Check estimates that 57% of all {dollars} invested in Bitcoin are now in loss. His cost-basis mannequin, which values every coin at its final on-chain transaction, displays what he calls the market’s recency bias.

He wrote:

“We value each coin when it final transacted onchain, and this helps us interpret sentiment primarily based on our recency bias We don’t take into consideration our cash from prior cycles as a lot as those we purchased 3-days in the past.”

Considering this, he identified that roughly 63% of capital invested carries a price foundation above $95,000, making that degree the important thing psychological and structural assist.

He additionally famous that unrealized losses whole almost $20 billion, or about 3% of market capitalization. Historically, bear markets have begun as soon as unrealized losses exceed 10%.

Therefore, if costs drop beneath $95,000, he anticipates a deterioration in sentiment. Prior corrections in 2024 and early 2025 stabilized when losses reached 7–8% of market cap. Anything deeper might sign {that a} new bear section is underway.

Check famous:

“Obviously no person desires to make that decision AFTER the worth has already fallen, which is why $95k is a crucial line within the sand to carry, because it deteriorates beneath.”

Is this the beginning of a bear market?

Industry analysts stay divided on whether or not Bitcoin’s current pullback marks the start of a brand new downtrend or just a mid-cycle reset.

Check mentioned:

“There has been an incredible rotation of cash in 2025, and a lions share of it has occurred above $95k. We don’t wish to see the worth fall beneath $95k, however I additionally count on the bulls to mount one hell of a combat to defend it. Prepare for a bear however dont consider the doomers.”

However, in a current notice known as “Hallelujah,” Hayes frames the decline as a operate of short-term greenback shortage quite than structural failure.

According to him, the heavy issuance of Treasury securities has siphoned liquidity from the cash markets. However, he believes this dynamic will reverse as soon as policymakers reopen the federal government and resume balance-sheet growth.

He wrote:

“If the present cash market circumstances persist, the treasury debt pile grows exponentially, the SRF steadiness should develop because the lender of final resort. As SRF balances develop, the quantity of fiat {dollars} on the earth expands as properly. This phenomenon will reignite the Bitcoin bull market.”

Meanwhile, Matt Hougan, chief funding officer at Bitwise Asset Management, shares Hayes’s long-term optimism however frames it inside Bitcoin’s evolving maturity.

On CNBC, he described the current downturn as “a story of two markets,” the place retail merchants capitulate amid leverage washouts whereas establishments quietly enhance publicity.

Considering this, Hougan burdened that BTC’s risk-adjusted outlook stays unmatched, however the days of 100x yearly returns are gone. He added:

“We’re unlikely to see 100x returns in a single yr. But there may be nonetheless large upside as soon as the distribution section is full…[However, we still] consider bitcoin will attain $1.3 million by 2035, and I personally assume we’re being conservative.”

At the identical time, he believes BTC’s period of 1% allocation is over as its decrease volatility makes it extra enticing to carry.

Hougan concluded:

“As an allocator, my response to this dynamic wouldn’t be to promote the asset—in spite of everything, we forecast bitcoin to be the best-performing giant asset on the earth over the subsequent decade—however quite, to purchase extra of it. Put otherwise, decrease volatility means it’s safer to personal extra of one thing.”

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