Bitcoin Bottom in Sight? Technicals and Lunar Cycles Point to November Reversal
Bitcoin (BTC) merchants anticipate a neighborhood backside forming in mid-November, because the 50-day easy shifting common (SMA) is about to cross under the 200-day SMA close to $100,000, a sample that has typically marked native bottoms.
In addition, some analysts are overlaying lunar phases on worth charts, noting that First Quarter moons typically precede rallies extending into Full or Third Quarter moons. These contrasting methods, traditional technical evaluation and using lunar part timing, are capturing consideration as Bitcoin checks important helps.
Death Cross and Key Support Levels Indicate November Bottom
The anticipated intersection of Bitcoin’s 50-day and 200-day SMAs, typically known as a death cross, may happen in mid-November close to $100,000. Historically, this occasion alerts native bottoms and doesn’t often mark long-term downturns.
According to Binance’s analysis, the typical worth change one month after a dying cross is simply -3.2%, difficult the concept that it reliably triggers lasting bear markets.
Analyst Colin suggests the bottom cheap stage for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle is round $98,000, a area with a number of assist alignments. This matches with the 50-week SMA, which has offered assist since Q1 2023.
Binance information from October 2025 indicates that the 50-week SMA is roughly $101,700, a key stage in the course of the ongoing bull market.
Since Q1 2023, Bitcoin has not closed a weekly candle beneath the 50-week SMA, a degree highlighted by analyst Ted Pillows in his October publish. This stage, now round $102,800, serves as the brink Bitcoin should maintain to preserve the bull run.
A weekly shut under this assist stage may point out a possible downturn in market construction.
Rising Wedge Formation Could Lead to 15-35% Dip
Despite constructive long-term alerts, Bitcoin’s weekly chart now shows a rising wedge, a bearish sample characterised by converging trendlines that point out waning momentum.
In earlier cycles, this setup has resulted in declines starting from 15% to 35%, as noticed in each 2018 and 2021. The sample suggests weaker shopping for strain at more and more greater costs inside a narrowing vary.
Still, the general bull market construction holds. Bitcoin continues to file greater lows and greater highs inside an ascending channel since 2022.
Historically, bounces from the channel’s decrease vary have rebounded 60% to 170%. Some analysts preserve a worth goal of $170,000 or higher, crediting this sturdy uptrend and the absence of overbought cycle alerts historically seen at macro tops.
The present sideways buying and selling between $105,000 and $110,000 is seen as a consolidation, slightly than a market breakdown.
Colin’s evaluation suggests the market is testing holders’ endurance, particularly for altcoin investors, because the cycle stretches past a typical This fall peak. He notes Bitcoin bucked precedent in the final bear market when its low of $15,000 fell under the previous cycle’s high of $20,000, a primary for the digital asset.
Lunar Cycle Observations Add to Bullish Case
Some merchants additionally match Bitcoin’s worth patterns with lunar phases. Analyst LP_NXT shared an evaluation illustrating that when Bitcoin is mapped alongside moon cycles, a transparent rhythm emerges for 2025.
First Quarter moons, together with the latest October 29 occasion, have typically corresponded with the start of upward strikes extending into the Full or Third Quarter moon intervals.
The First Quarter moon on October 29, 2025, may thus align with a bullish development in accordance to this principle. This timing aligns with the technical view that mid-November may mark the native backside.
Supporters attribute these cycles to recurring market psychology slightly than superstitious reasoning. Although lunar part evaluation lacks the rigor of established technical instruments, its recurrence amongst merchants highlights the varied vary of methods employed in crypto markets.
The alignment of lunar timing, established assist ranges, and shifting common crossovers makes November 2025 a focus for merchants.
Bullish Structure Holds as Market Consolidates
Current market conditions stability short-term bearish technicals with long-term bullish momentum. Colin’s evaluation highlights the significance of endurance, suggesting that market shakeouts could happen for these searching for a standard This fall peak.
He recommends holding Bitcoin till a brand new all-time high is reached, then doubtlessly rotating into altcoins utilizing Bitcoin-denominated positive factors a couple of weeks later.
The so-called dying cross, whereas usually seen as adverse, acts extra as a lagging affirmation in Bitcoin’s historical past.
Meanwhile, Ledger’s instructional supplies point out that it typically alerts capitulation (exhausted promoting and reversal) slightly than forecasting main strikes in advance.
As October 2025 concludes, Bitcoin’s skill to stay above the 50-week SMA will decide the bull market’s path.
The mid-November window, prompt by each moving average analysis and lunar timing, offers merchants with a timeframe for potential accumulation. Whether conventional or unconventional strategies show correct, November 2025 is shaping up to be a decisive interval for Bitcoin worth motion.
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