Bitcoin Bottom May Be Near on Price, but Demand Tells a Different Story
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a bear market low close to $59,000 in June, buying and selling simply 9% above its $53,600 realized worth. That valuation zone has traditionally marked cycle bottoms.
However, on-chain analysts warning that worth alone doesn’t affirm a ground. CryptoQuant and Glassnode information level to collapsing demand and incomplete capitulation.
Bitcoin Nears Floor as Demand Reversal Blocks Bottom Confirmation
A June 10 CryptoQuant report described the extent as a worth zone moderately than a confirmed backside. Realized worth displays the common acquisition value of all cash in circulation.
“Previous bear markets ended at costs close to or marginally under the realized worth, suggesting that from a pure valuation standpoint, Bitcoin could also be approaching a structural ground,” CryptoQuant wrote.
However, demand information tells a totally different story. Total Bitcoin demand contracted by 652,000 BTC, the sharpest drop since January 2022. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are additionally recording notable outflows, eradicating a key source of structural demand.
Glassnode’s newest Week On-Chain report reinforces the weak institutional demand. The Coinbase Premium stayed in low cost territory as costs fell towards $60,000, signaling fading US spot demand.
Corporate treasury inflows have additionally dropped from peaks above $500 million per day to a fraction of their latest tempo as BTC slipped toward $60,000 in June.
“The decline in accumulation suggests this cohort is turning into extra cautious, eradicating one other supply of marginal demand at a time when broader market sentiment stays weak,” Glassnode stated.
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Meanwhile, capitulation additionally seems to be incomplete. Realized losses reached solely 187,000 BTC, far under the 1.2 million BTC flushed out on the 2022 backside.
According to CryptoQuant, this means that “the market has not but exhausted its provide of motivated sellers.” The report, due to this fact, treats the extent as a ground candidate until demand stabilizes.
“The backside could also be close to by way of worth stage, but a regime become a bull market requires a constructive demand restoration, a situation not but seen within the information. Until complete demand stabilizes, ETF flows get better, and realized losses attain capitulation-level peaks, the present worth stage needs to be interpreted as a valuation ground candidate, not a confirmed cycle backside,” CryptoQuant added.
Bitcoin traded close to $62,753 on Thursday, up 2% over the previous 24 hours, in line with BeInCrypto Markets information. The token stays down 23% over 30 days and roughly 50% under its October 2025 peak of over $126,000.
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