Bitcoin (BTC) Looks Weak, But Bitwise Says New Highs Are Coming in 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market are presently struggling amid what many consider is a persistent bear market, however Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expects the asset to succeed in new all-time highs in 2026 as a consequence of a number of structural shifts in the market.
In his newest outlook, Hougan argued that the long-followed four-year Bitcoin cycle, sometimes pushed by the halving, rate of interest shifts, and leverage-fueled booms and busts, is losing its affect, which makes room for a structurally stronger market.
New ATH in 2026?
Historically, Bitcoin has seen three robust years {followed} by a pointy correction, which might indicate weak spot in 2026, however Bitwise says the forces behind these cycles are actually a lot weaker. The influence of every halving is diminishing over time, rates of interest are anticipated to fall in 2026 relatively than rise as they did throughout earlier downturns, and the chance of main market blow-ups has declined following a discount in leverage after report liquidations in late 2025, alongside clearer regulation.
More importantly, Bitwise factors to accelerating institutional adoption as a serious driver of the subsequent leg greater, whereas noting that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 opened the door to institutional capital, and main platforms corresponding to Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch are anticipated to start allocating in 2026.
Meanwhile, Wall Street and fintech corporations are more and more embracing crypto following a pro-crypto regulatory shift after the 2024 US election.
Beyond value beneficial properties, Hougan additionally predicted that Bitcoin would develop into much less risky and noticed that in 2025, the crypto asset was already much less risky than Nvidia, one of the vital extensively held shares in the market. He additionally defined that Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily declining for a decade as its investor base broadens by ETFs and different conventional funding merchandise.
This pattern displays BTC’s gradual derisking as an asset and may proceed into 2026.
Decoupling From Wall Street
The agency additionally expects Bitcoin’s correlation with shares to fall, thus difficult the view that the crypto merely trades like a tech inventory. According to Bitwise, information exhibits BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 has normally remained under ranges thought-about meaningfully high. The agency believes sure elements, corresponding to regulatory progress and rising institutional inflows, might push Bitcoin greater whilst equities face strain from high valuations and slowing financial development.
Bitwise says these developments collectively might ship robust returns, decrease volatility, and lowered correlation with conventional markets. Such a setup might probably draw tens of billions of {dollars} in new institutional capital in 2026.
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