Bitcoin Bull Signals are Flashing Everywhere, Analysts Claim
Bitcoin momentum turned constructive on two extensively watched indicators this week, ending a bearish stretch of roughly 10 months. PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow mannequin, shared the flip and questioned whether or not studying it might be that easy.
His doubt has a foundation. BTC trades close to $81,679, down 1.7% over 24 hours and under the $83,094 stage proven on his chart.
Do Bitcoin Bull Signals Mark a New Cycle?
PlanB shared a chart from analytics platform Block Horizon monitoring momentum in Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. MVRV compares market capitalization with the combination price foundation of all cash.
Historically, inexperienced readings have lined up with bull markets and purple readings with bear phases. The oscillator turned inexperienced on October 13 at +0.07, after a purple run that started in late 2025.
Notably, the 2026 bear section bottomed close to -0.4. That is shallower than the roughly -0.55 troughs of 2018 and 2022.
Why a Positive Flip May Not Confirm the Bottom
Analyst Quinten Francois replied with a second gauge. Bitcoin’s weekly transferring common convergence divergence (MACD) rose above zero after 44 consecutive damaging weeks.
The identical flip appeared in 2019 and 2023, with very totally different outcomes. In 2023, it preceded a rally from roughly $25,000 to above $70,000 inside a yr.
In 2019, nevertheless, BTC briefly climbed close to $13,800 earlier than sliding under $4,000 by March 2020. Last month, a separate 50-week moving average signal additionally returned after 45 weeks.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Finally Broken?
Eric Crown, a member of BeInCrypto’s Market Intelligence Expert Council, argues the calendar itself has failed.
There are solely 2 eventualities potential now:
1. BTC bottomed in July by which it was forward of schedule (damaged)
2. BTC bottoms anytime after right this moment, by which it was late on its schedule (damaged)
Either manner, its damaged… lastly.
Previous lows arrived roughly a yr after every cycle peak, pointing to an autumn 2026 backside. Benjamin Cowen had anticipated an October cycle bottom earlier than conceding in September that his bearish name failed.
Meanwhile, BTC dropped to $57,800 on July 1, roughly three months forward of that schedule.
Has the Crowd Already Priced In the Bull Case?
CryptoQuant’s Analyst Consensus Index, constructed from votes by 164 analysts, climbed from -18.3 on July 2 to +49.2 by October 13. Over the identical interval, the bullish share rose from 37% to 84%.
Price has not saved tempo. According to CryptoQuant’s information, BTC peaked close to $87,000 in late September, and the current Bitcoin price sits about 6% decrease.
On-chain momentum, value momentum, and analyst sentiment now level the identical manner. If halving math not units the calendar, Bitcoin’s subsequent leg might rely upon whether or not that crowded consensus survives its first actual check.
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