Bitcoin Correction Timeline: Analyst Predicts Potential Bottom In October 2026

As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to take care of its place beneath the $90,000 threshold, market sentiment seems to be shifting towards the potential for a brand new bear market. Notably, analyst Ali Martinez has drawn comparisons with historic market cycles to forecast Bitcoin’s trajectory. 

Bitcoin Market Patterns

In a current social media post, Martinez highlighted a recurring sample that implies it usually takes round 1,064 days for Bitcoin to transition from a market backside to a market high, adopted by roughly 364 days from a market peak again to the subsequent backside.

In the primary cycle, the market bottomed out in January 2015 and reached its peak in December 2017, precisely 1,064 days later. This was adopted by a bear market that lasted 364 days, culminating within the backside in December 2018. 

The second cycle mirrored this sample: the market bottomed in December 2018 and reached its apex in November 2021, once more over a span of 1,064 days. Subsequently, one other downturn adopted, resulting in a backside in November 2022, when Bitcoin traded round $15,500.

Next Bottom At $37,500?

Currently, the analyst highlights that the market is in what may very well be the third cycle, having witnessed a market backside in November 2022 and a present peak above $126,000 reached again in October. 

Applying the historic patterns of those cycles, it means that Bitcoin is now throughout the 364-day correction window, indicating a possible backside may materialize round October 2026 — roughly 288 days from now.

Examining previous bear markets affords further context for projecting potential draw back. The bear market from 2017 to 2018 noticed a correction of roughly 84%, whereas the market decline from 2021 to 2022 skilled a retracement of roughly 77%. 

Averaging these two corrections, Martinez suggests an anticipated retracement of round 80%, positioning Bitcoin’s subsequent market backside at round $37,500.

Currently, the market’s main cryptocurrency is buying and selling barely above the $88,290 mark, which is a 30% hole from the present peak. 

Featured picture from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com