Bitcoin Could Find Next Bottom Near $50,000 Based On Gold Ratio, Expert Warns
While gold has posted main positive factors, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to point out main indicators of weak point, with costs drifting towards decrease help ranges and now approaching the intently watched $82,000 mark, a pivotal level in figuring out the subsequent main path for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
Against this backdrop, market analyst Doctor Profit has drawn consideration to what he describes as one of the essential charts of the present Bitcoin cycle: the Gold‑to‑Bitcoin (GOLD/BTC) ratio.
What The Gold-To-Bitcoin Ratio Suggests
According to Profit, this chart has repeatedly offered dependable indicators for main market tops and bottoms. He famous that he first shared this framework almost a yr in the past, highlighting a historic sample during which Bitcoin tends to peak when 0.02 BTC equals one ounce of gold, and backside when that ratio reaches 0.11 BTC per ounce.
Profit identified that this relationship performed out in the course of the earlier cycle, precisely marking Bitcoin’s high in 2021 and its backside in 2022. He argues that the identical sample has repeated within the present cycle, claiming Bitcoin’s latest high close to $125,000 when the gold‑to‑Bitcoin ratio as soon as once more reached the 0.02 degree.
The key query now, he says, is whether or not the market will once more attain the 0.11 BTC‑per‑ounce degree that has traditionally signaled a bottom. Based on present costs, Profit walked by way of the maths.
Assuming a gold worth of roughly $5,500 per ounce, dividing that determine by 0.11 implies a Bitcoin worth close to $50,000. That consequence, he famous, aligns together with his broader expectation that Bitcoin’s cycle low might fall someplace between $50,000 and $60,000.
He added that even below a extra bullish scenario for gold, the evaluation nonetheless helps his thesis. If gold have been to rise to $7,000 per ounce, the identical ratio would suggest a Bitcoin backside close to $63,000. In his view, each situations reinforce the concept gold is prone to outperform Bitcoin within the coming months.
BTC Nearing Late‑Cycle Bear Phase?
Not all analysts, nonetheless, share that bearish outlook for Bitcoin. Offering a contrasting perspective, technical analyst Michael van de Poppe suggested that gold’s latest power could possibly be nearing exhaustion, doubtlessly setting the stage for capital to rotate again into Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe highlighted the relative power index (RSI) of Bitcoin measured in opposition to gold on the weekly timeframe, noting that it has reached the bottom degree ever recorded.
In his evaluation, this means a pointy imbalance in valuations, with one asset showing overextended within the quick time period and the opposite deeply undervalued. He described the scenario as a part of what he calls the “huge rotation” section of the market cycle.
The analyst additionally pointed to Bitcoin’s Z‑Score indicator, a metric used to evaluate whether or not the cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued by evaluating its market capitalization to its realized capitalization, adjusted for volatility.
According to van de Poppe, the current Z‑Score for Bitcoin is decrease than it was at a number of main historic bottoms, together with these seen in 2015, 2018, the COVID‑19 crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market low. In his view, this indicators that BTC is already deep right into a bear‑market section and could also be approaching its closing levels.
At the time of writing, BTC was buying and selling at $83,435, with losses of two.2% and seven% recorded within the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively.
Featured picture from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
