Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns

Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, has issued his starkest warning but on quantum computing, arguing that Bitcoin should migrate to post-quantum signatures on an accelerated timeline or face existential danger later this decade. “We have to improve Bitcoin to be Quantum proof subsequent yr. 2026. Otherwise we’re fucked,” Edwards wrote on X early Monday, escalating a collection of posts by which he contends “Q-Day is that this decade.”

Could Bitcoin Crash To $0?

Edwards’ thesis hinges on the fast compression of useful resource estimates required to run Shor’s algorithm towards Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve digital signatures (ECDSA/Schnorr on secp256k1). Pushing again at skeptics who “handwave Quantum as being 20+ years away,” he argued that solely “~2,000 logical qubits” could also be ample to interrupt ECC-256 inside a sensible time window, putting a reputable assault in “2–6 years.” In a separate trade he framed the stakes bluntly: “Do you need $1M Bitcoin in 5 years, or $0?”

Edwards’ timeline carefully tracks a recent line of analysis and trade messaging from Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Démers, founding father of Pauli Group, a startup targeted on quantum-resistant cash. In an August analysis preprint and public thread, Dallaire-Démers and co-authors launched graded ECDLP challenges on Bitcoin’s curve and, after translating logical circuits to bodily prices throughout a number of error-corrected architectures, positioned “cryptanalytically related” ECC-256 assaults in a “roughly 2027–2033” window—emphasizing vast error bars and sensitivity to {hardware} assumptions.

Pauli Group summarized the upshot plainly: “The first assault on 256-bit ECC will plausibly occur between 2027–2033.” The agency additionally provocatively acknowledged through X: “PQC BTC will go to $1M+ by 2030. ECC BTC gained’t.”

The core danger vector is well-established: as soon as a Bitcoin deal with reveals its public key on-chain—by spending from it or through the use of legacy codecs that expose the important thing outright—a sufficiently highly effective quantum pc operating Shor’s algorithm might, in precept, derive the personal key shortly sufficient to steal funds.

Security researchers and trade groups word that cash in already-exposed keys are the primary in line, whereas cash nonetheless sitting behind hashed (unrevealed) public keys are safer till they transfer. Several analyses estimate {that a} non-trivial share of excellent BTC resides in exposed-key outputs, together with early “pay-to-pubkey” period cash typically related to Satoshi. Edwards leaned into that tail danger, claiming “Satoshi’s cash will likely be market dumped” absent a migration.

Not everyone agrees on the clock pace. Some conservative estimates nonetheless level to tens of millions of error-corrected qubits for sensible, quick ECDSA breaks, and requirements our bodies have revealed transition steerage that implicitly assumes an extended runway.

In late 2024, materials circulated within the NIST/PQ ecosystem sketched migrations away from susceptible algorithms by roughly 2035—a horizon many safety engineers view as sensible for broad IT programs, even when area of interest breakthroughs arrive sooner. The unfold between the “hundreds” versus “tens of millions” of logical qubits camps displays fast-evolving algorithmic optimizations, differing error-correction fashions, and diverse assumptions about gate speeds and code distances.

Notably, Edwards is taking the message to TOKEN2049 this week, the place he’s slated to current “DOUBLE THREAT: Quantum & the Treasury Bubble” on Wednesday, October 1 at 10:45 a.m. native time—positioning quantum compromise and a rising “Bitcoin Treasury Bubble” as the 2 dominant draw back dangers for BTC over the subsequent cycle.

At press time, BTC traded at $112,150.