Bitcoin Cycle Turns as Demand Exhaustion Signals Bear Market: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s newest market cycle has entered a brand new part, with onchain and derivatives knowledge pointing to demand exhaustion and a transition into bear market territory, in line with CryptoQuant’s newest Crypto Weekly Report.
After a number of demand-driven rallies since 2023, the agency says the structural pillars that supported larger costs are actually weakening.
Demand Growth Falls Below Trend
CryptoQuant’s evaluation reveals that Bitcoin demand growth has decisively slowed since early October 2025, falling under its long-term development.
The present cycle featured three main spot demand waves: the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, optimism surrounding the U.S. presidential election end result, and a surge of curiosity from Bitcoin Treasury Companies.
With these catalysts largely priced in, incremental demand has diminished, eradicating a key supply of worth assist that beforehand sustained upward momentum.
The agency notes that when demand development rolls over on this method, it has traditionally marked the tip of bullish phases, no matter broader narratives round provide shocks or halving occasions.
Institutional and Large-Holder Demand Reverses
Institutional conduct is now reinforcing the bearish sign. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from accumulation to distribution within the fourth quarter of 2025, with web holdings declining by roughly 24,000 BTC. This stands in stark distinction to This fall 2024, when ETFs have been sturdy web consumers and a central driver of market energy.
At the identical time, onchain knowledge reveals that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—usually related to ETFs, funds, and company treasuries—are rising under historic development.
CryptoQuant compares this sample to late 2021, when related demand deterioration preceded the 2022 bear market.
Derivatives Markets Signal Weakening Risk Appetite
Derivatives knowledge provides additional affirmation. Funding charges in perpetual futures, measured utilizing a 365-day shifting common, have declined to their lowest degree since December 2023. Falling funding charges sometimes point out decreased willingness amongst merchants to take care of leveraged lengthy positions.
Historically, such situations have been extra in keeping with bear market regimes than bull phases, reflecting declining danger urge for food and decrease conviction amongst market individuals.
Price Structure and Downside Scenarios
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has damaged under its 365-day shifting common, a key long-term indicator that has traditionally separated bull and bear market situations.
CryptoQuant stresses that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is pushed primarily by demand expansions and contractions moderately than the halving itself.
Despite the bearish shift, draw back projections counsel a comparatively shallow cycle. Past bear market bottoms have aligned with Bitcoin’s realized worth, presently close to $56,000.
This would suggest a drawdown of roughly 55% from the latest all-time high—doubtlessly the smallest bear market decline on document. Interim assist is anticipated across the $70,000 degree, providing a key zone to look at as the cycle continues to reset.
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