Bitcoin Death Cross Is Coming: Don’t Be Fooled By The Name

Bitcoin is days from printing one other day by day “dying cross” — the 50-day easy transferring common slipping beneath the 200-day — however analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) argues the label misleads greater than it informs.

In a November 12 video breakdown titled “BTC Daily Death Cross — How It Works And What To Expect,” he contends that each day by day dying cross of this cycle has coincided with the late levels — and, in follow, the lows — of multi-month corrective phases. “Don’t fall for the posts that say, ‘Oh my god, dying cross on the day by day, we’re taking place 80%.’ That’s not how these have performed out,” he says. “Remember, transferring averages are lagging indicators […] the transfer that brought on the cross has already occurred.”

What The Bitcoin Death Cross Means

The framing is data-driven and distinctly cyclical. This market, he stresses, has not behaved like 2017 or 2020–2021, when vertical advances by no means allowed the 50-day to undercut the 200-day through the advance. Instead, 2023–2025 has featured lengthy pauses of 114 to 174 days, with value grinding sideways-to-down earlier than pushing larger once more.

Each of these pauses bent the 50-day decrease lengthy sufficient for a cross, and every cross clustered close to the top of the corrective window. “This cycle we’ve got seen these constant, proper, 150, 160-plus days of corrective intervals […] and with that causes the transferring averages to behave in another way,” he says.

Kevin revisits the three prior crosses. In 2023, after the brutal post-$30k vary that adopted the breakout from bear-market lows, the dying cross “marked the lows […] mainly the top of the correction.” Bitcoin chopped for roughly a month, then launched into what he calls “the most important rally of the cycle,” carrying from roughly $25k to $73k as altcoins “went berserk […] 5x to 8x, some 10x.”

The 2024 occasion got here after the mid-cycle prime in March and a year-long grind into the US election window. A single “16% candle on at some point” stabbed into the lows just a few days earlier than the cross; the cross itself arrived after the harm, adopted by two months of chop after which a This fall restoration bid amid “the election exuberance” and a “dovish” flip in Fed rhetoric, pushing Bitcoin “to about $110k.”

The third case, in Q1 2025, was even cleaner. As markets corrected from late-December/early-January peaks amid tariff fears and froth, the 50-under-200 print “actually marked the underside of the correction,” with an instantaneous restoration. He characterizes 2025 as a yr of reclamation reasonably than growth: “We barely made a brand new all-time high […] that’s simply sort of been 2025 in a nutshell,” which explains “why sentiment is simply so unhealthy.”

The core mechanism is lag. Because the 50- and 200-day SMAs common previous costs, their cross displays a transfer already accomplished. “Almost 100% of the time when a dying cross happens, you do get a retrace again up into your transferring averages,” Kevin says, including that the important thing query is whether or not Bitcoin’s bounce merely tags that cluster or reclaims it with authority.

He highlights a selected line within the sand: “Can it reclaim the $106.8k degree on weekly closes? If Bitcoin can reclaim its day by day transferring averages […] and its $106.8k degree on weekly closes, Bitcoin ought to have the chance at making a brand new all-time high.” Failure would argue that “the four-year cycle simply performed out usually and Bitcoin simply had a very weak cycle,” with altcoins by no means delivering a basic “alt season.”

What Comes Next For BTC?

The analyst leans into the current confusion. He notes a schism amongst four-year-cycle adherents over whether or not the clock needs to be measured from the underside or from the halving, and he factors to proof of distribution from long-term holders: “Whales which were holding for the reason that Satoshi period [are] offloading their Bitcoin.”
Even so, he frames spot resilience as non-trivial: “Pretty shocked that Bitcoin continues to be hanging round at $105k given the truth that it’s had that a lot promote strain […] again in earlier days when Bitcoin was topping out and whales have been offloading, Bitcoin was going via 50% corrections.”

The broader macro backdrop is a part of the story. This has been “a restrictive financial coverage surroundings the place liquidity was being sucked out of the system and charges have been simply too restrictive,” with AI-led equities absorbing threat flows. “The NASDAQ and S&P have been making new all-time highs for a number of years,” he says, whereas the Russell “barely broke out to a brand new all-time high just a few weeks in the past.” In different phrases, crypto’s underperformance will not be remoted.

What comes subsequent, in Kevin’s view, is a clear market check. The day by day dying cross is “a day or two away,” probably into the weekend, and merchants ought to count on a response towards the transferring averages. The decisive stage is whether or not value can then clear the stack — “our 200 SMA, our 200 EMA, our 100 EMA, and even this 50 SMA” — and convert the $106.8k weekly shut degree again into help.

“If we will do this […] Bitcoin completely has a chance to go make a brand new high,” he says. “If we will’t […] then clearly issues will not be going to be trying too good.” He cautions that incoming macro prints and central-bank rhetoric might “throw a wrench into issues,” however he returns to the identical empirical anchor: “This has occurred thrice this cycle already. Here’s precisely how the info works. Here’s what’s occurred.”

The punchline is much less apocalyptic than the title implies. Four dying crosses in a single cycle is unprecedented for Bitcoin throughout an advance, and the final three coincided with late-stage corrective lows reasonably than development collapses. As Kevin places it: “The dying cross everybody fears has marked each backside up to now.” The sign that “refuses to kill Bitcoin” is ready to flash once more; the pathology of the transfer afterward — rejection on the averages versus a decisive reclaim and weekly maintain above $106.8k — will inform the true story.

At press time, BTC traded at $103,540.