Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ Returns: Why BTC Could Tumble to $30,000 Next
A key technical sign that has foreshadowed the ultimate capitulation part of earlier Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets is flashing once more.
According to chartist Ali Martinez, a “dying cross” on the three-day chart might be confirmed in late February, probably sending BTC to $40,000 and even $30,000.
The Death Cross Pattern and What History Shows
Martinez pointed to the three-day chart as a vital timeframe for understanding Bitcoin’s macro construction, noting that the interplay between the 50 and 200 easy shifting averages on this chart has reliably signaled the final main draw back transfer since 2014.
“The dying cross between these two shifting averages on the 3-day chart has constantly preceded the ultimate leg down of a bear market,” the dealer wrote.
Following the 2013 high, Bitcoin dropped greater than 72% earlier than the dying cross printed in December 2014, after which it fell one other 52%. After the 2017 peak, the dying cross appeared in November 2018, coming simply earlier than a closing 50% decline. The sign emerged once more in May 2022, following the 2021 high, which led to an extra 45% drop.
Bitcoin registered a brand new all-time high (ATH) in October 2025 when it went above $126,000, however the present worth, which had recovered to simply over $66,000 on the time of writing after earlier shedding about $4,000 in solely a matter of hours, is almost 48% under that ATH.
With a possible dying cross projected for late February, Martinez warns that if historical past repeats even partially, an additional 30% decline would place Bitcoin close to $40,000, whereas a 50% drop may take it to $30,000.
However, the market watcher was fast to word that there have been no ensures the value drops would occur, though the present construction matches up with historic setups that led to the final main draw back strikes earlier than macro bottoms fashioned.
Market Reaction and On-Chain Divergence
Bitcoin is presently down about 2.5% within the final 24 hours and greater than 4% over the previous week. It has additionally misplaced almost 27% of its worth prior to now month, a drop exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s current announcement of a ten% (later upgraded to 15%) short-term world tariff after the nation’s Supreme Court struck down most of the earlier tariffs the Trump administration had imposed below a 1977 emergency legislation.
As seen throughout previous tariff-related volatility, the affect on Bitcoin wasn’t rapid however arrived as soon as legacy futures markets opened. It additionally sparked a coordinated bearish impulse within the futures market, with knowledge from analyst Axel Adler Jr. showing that taker promote quantity spiked to $2.3 billion in a single hour, accompanied by pressured lengthy liquidations of roughly 1,247 BTC value greater than $81 million.
Santiment knowledge confirmed the liquidation cascade, noting open curiosity dropped to $19.5 billion, which is lower than half its January peak, main to skyrocketing unfavourable sentiment, and the Bitcoin market getting into “FUD mode.”
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