Bitcoin ETFs are 60% underwater, creating a $100 billion distressed house of cards
Bitcoin is buying and selling close to $86,000 as losses construct throughout ETFs, treasury corporations, and miners.
According to Checkonchain’s Dec. 15 “System Stress” observe, buyers are carrying about $100 billion in unrealized losses.
Miners are pulling again hashrate, many treasury-company shares are buying and selling under their Bitcoin e book worth, and about 60% of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are underwater.
Checkonchain’s chart of ETF common influx price foundation and ETF market worth to realized worth (MVRV) locations the ETF price foundation and the True Market Mean in the identical space, round $80,000–$82,000.
That places a giant share of institutional positioning close to breakeven.
Those anchors matter as a result of they join worth motion to steadiness sheets moderately than chart patterns.
When worth sits on or under combination price foundation, realized losses can climb, and liquidity can skinny as individuals exit positions into bounces.
When that zone is shared by cohorts that had change into key sources of demand in 2024 and 2025, the market is pressured to find out whether or not institutional positioning serves as a cost-basis flooring.
It may flip into a draw back set off if that stage breaks.
Glassnode units a related map
In its Week On-Chain report for week 49, Glassnode wrote that Bitcoin has been range-bound between the short-term holder price foundation close to $102,700 and the True Market Mean close to $81,300.
It framed $95,000 (the 0.75 cost-basis quantile) as an early reclaim stage.
Bitwise additionally put the True Market Mean close to $82,000 as a help reference.
It described a help channel from about $82,000 all the way down to $75,000, tying that band to the IBIT price foundation close to $81,000 and Strategy’s price foundation close to $75,000.
Bitwise estimated unrealized losses at round $152 billion (about 6.6% of market cap) after a roughly 35% drawdown, bringing whole losses to about $765 billion.
A stress function is the quantity of ETF capital between $75,000 and $85,000.
The combination spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis is round $80,000 below roughly $127 billion of capital.
However, solely 2.9% of that capital sits within the $75,000–$85,000 band, leaving a thinner cushion if worth slips under the central cluster.
Amberdata additionally described a denser “fortress” zone at $65,000–$70,000 that holds 15.2% of ETF capital.
That distribution can translate into sooner draw back strikes if the market trades via the $75,000–$85,000 hole.
Loss realization is already elevated even when worth rebounds
Glassnode put entity-adjusted realized loss (30-day easy shifting common) close to $555 million per day, the very best stage because the FTX-era unwind.
It stated this was occurring whilst costs bounced from late-November lows into the low-$90,000s.
The similar report positioned the relative unrealized loss (30-day SMA) at round 4.4% after practically two years, down from under 2%.
That aligns with Checkonchain’s view that the cycle has entered a stress regime.
ETFs stay central as a result of they serve each as structural allocation rails and as a short-term liquidity valve.
According to Bitbo’s ETF tracker, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively held about 1,311,862 BTC (about $117.3 billion) as of Dec. 15.
BlackRock’s IBIT held about 778,052 BTC (about $69.6 billion) after recording combined flows during the last two weeks, culminating in a modest $100 million web influx.
That is a reminder that ETF demand can flip shortly throughout risk-off intervals.
Mining economics add one other stress level as a result of weaker income can translate into stock gross sales or deferred funding.
In its November lookback, Luxor’s Hashrate Index reported that the USD hashprice averaged about $39.82, down 17.9% month over month.
It hit an all-time low close to $35.06 on Nov. 22.
Luxor stated ahead curves for December 2025 via April 2026 fell about 16–18% in USD phrases.
Checkonchain additionally wrote that miners are pulling again hashrate.
That retains consideration on whether or not the sector is approaching a capitulation-style flush or a longer margin-compression section.
The third cohort, Bitcoin-treasury equities, is dealing with a funding constraint on the similar time.
Reuters reported that Bitcoin treasury corporations purchased about $50 billion of Bitcoin over the previous yr, however many are now buying and selling at a low cost to their web asset worth.
That reduces the benefit of issuing fairness to purchase extra Bitcoin.
When these shares are under the worth of the underlying holdings, the “situation fairness, purchase BTC” flywheel turns into more durable to run at scale.
Macro linkage has change into the amplifier
Reuters cited LSEG information exhibiting Bitcoin’s common correlation to the S&P 500 close to 0.5 in 2025 versus about 0.29 in 2024.
It additionally cited a correlation with the Nasdaq 100 close to 0.52, versus about 0.23, tying many drawdowns to fairness danger regimes moderately than crypto-only catalysts.
Rates matter in that setup as a result of they set the tone for danger urge for food. Bank of America expects two extra cuts in June and July 2026.
That retains the 2026 price path close to the middle of the controversy over danger belongings.
Taken collectively, that causal stack is why Checkonchain calls the present setup essentially the most damaging since 2022.
Underwater capital is concentrated in cohorts with steadiness sheets that are delicate to cost; the reflexive purchaser base has much less funding flexibility; miner margins are compressed into early 2026; and Bitcoin’s hyperlink to danger belongings is tighter than it was final yr.
For readers attempting to translate that into a forward-looking framework with out turning it into buying and selling recommendation, the stress could be tracked via measurable gauges.
| Level (approx.) | What it represents |
|---|---|
| $81k–$82k | True Market Mean and ETF influx cost-basis cluster |
| $95k | 0.75 cost-basis quantile (reclaim marker) |
| $102.7k | Short-term holder price foundation |
| $75k | Lower sure in Bitwise help channel (MSTR price foundation reference) |
| $65k–$70k | Heavier ETF capital focus |
On-chain, step one is to find out whether or not realized-loss measures roll over from present ranges as worth stops printing new lows close to the True Market Mean.
In flows, the query is whether or not giant outflow days stay frequent or give solution to steadier web conduct.
In mining, the watch level is whether or not hashprice and the ahead curve stabilize into early 2026, or whether or not margin stress deepens and forces extra operational retrenchment.
The subsequent balance-sheet take a look at stays the $80,000–$82,000 cost-basis band.
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