Bitcoin Faces $7.5B Whale Inflow Pressure on Binance — Bear Market Next?
Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin has seen a surge in whale inflows to Binance, reaching $7.5B despatched to the centralized change over the previous 30 days, the best stage ever recorded in a calendar 12 months.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn mentioned the present spike in whale inflows is just like patterns seen in March 2025, when Bitcoin moved from around $102K to the low $70K range.
“In these conditions, whales sometimes ship funds to exchanges both to take revenue or to handle danger when the market weakens. With the 30-day influx measure nonetheless climbing, the info doesn’t but counsel that promoting strain has stabilized,” he added.
For traders, this implies the danger zone for Bitcoin has not totally cleared, and the market stays too fragile to find out whether or not a pattern reversal is imminent or if Bitcoin will proceed visiting the lows to set off a long-term bear market.
Bitcoin November Crash Mirrors 2021 Bear Market, Not 2023 Dip
Ki Young Ju, Founder and CEO at CryptoQuant, pointed out that “Bitcoin on-chain indicators are bearish, and additional upside probably relies upon on macro liquidity.“
Expert Bitcoin and Commodities Investor G. Martín believes the $126,000 high in October has probably printed Bitcoin’s post-halving prime, and the present transfer appears much less like a dip and extra like the beginning of a traditional bear market.
In his Substack post titled “Bitcoin is in a Bear Market,” Martín argued that the October 10 de-leveraging occasion, which noticed $19 billion wiped from the crypto market, was extra just like the 2021-2022 early bear market stage slightly than the 2023 bull market OI flush.
“We can clearly see how the pattern is lastly damaged, and OI is beginning to decide up once more, which may imply merchants are positioning for decrease costs,” he mentioned.
Martín added that the final two months, throughout which Bitcoin fell from $126k to $80k, present how a lot asset costs are pushed by sentiment, greed, and worry, not simply fundamentals.
He described Bitcoin as an asset with no money flows whose value is principally pushed by liquidity and propelled by new narratives every cycle.
“Over the final six months, 95% of retail purchased Bitcoin with a median value of ~$115k, largely throughout the ‘Crypto President Trump’ euphoria. Few stopped to think about that we had already gone by a +700% bull run over three years,” he mentioned.
When BTC value was chopping round $100k, the narratives felt much less like rational evaluation and extra like denial. “It appeared folks weren’t actually bullish; as a substitute, they have been scared as a result of their entry value was underwater,” Martín concluded.
Martín recognized Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s MSTR mNAV as an important indicator for a Bitcoin-led bear market, noting it’s now behaving equally to the early phases of the 2021–2022 bear market.
Fed Rate Cuts Won’t Save Bitcoin -Analyst Warns
Martín additionally addressed the Fed rate cut expectation in December, which many view as bullish for a Bitcoin Santa rally as QT ends subsequent week.
Bitcoin might slip to $60K – $80K if the Fed holds charges regular, however analysts name it a “wholesome recalibration”, not a brand new crypto winter.#Bitcoin #InterestRates #Fedhttps://t.co/Mheh7KZH9T
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) November 24, 2025
He defined that if the Fed reduces its stability sheet from long-term holdings, capital to purchase these property will come from the non-public sector, draining liquidity from markets.
“Rate cuts might be constructive for the economic system generally, however not essentially bullish for Bitcoin,” he mentioned.
He believes present Fed insurance policies may finish the Bitcoin 4-year cycle and see the asset backside out in late 2026 when liquidity returns.
According to his evaluation, Bitcoin should reclaim a number of main resistances after November’s selloff to mark a correct backside round its 200-Week SMA earlier than a bullish rally can resume.
In this state of affairs, Bitcoin may probably revisit the $73k and even $70k lows, adopted by a aid rally towards $95k–$105k within the mid-term.
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