Bitcoin Flirts With ‘Undervalued’ As MVRV Slides Toward 1
Bitcoin is nearing a stage on the MVRV ratio that traditionally traces up with market “undervaluation,” in response to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan, as merchants search for indicators {that a} four-month drawdown from October 2025’s all-time high is shifting from distribution into accumulation.
Is Bitcoin Undervalued?
In a post on X, Korean Dan mentioned Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” arguing that the market is getting near a threshold that has usually marked compelling risk-reward for longer-horizon patrons.
“After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for roughly 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally talking, when the (*1*) falls beneath 1, Bitcoin is taken into account to be undervalued. The present worth is round 1.1, which may be seen as being near the undervalued zone.”
The MVRV framing issues as a result of the metric has tended to compress towards 1 round prior cycle lows. The chart shared alongside the publish exhibits the ratio at roughly 1.10, with earlier sub-1.0 dips highlighted round previous bottoming home windows.
Crypto Dan cautioned that merchants shouldn’t assume the present setup will rhyme completely with prior drawdowns, particularly as a result of the previous advance seemed completely different on valuation measures. “
However, in contrast to earlier cycles, it’s mandatory to acknowledge that on this cycle, Bitcoin didn’t sharply rise all the way in which into the overvalued zone in the course of the uptrend,” he wrote. “Accordingly, the sample of the decline can also seem otherwise from the earlier backside zones, so it appears prudent to arrange for that risk in our response.”
That caveat turned the point of interest of a brief back-and-forth in replies. One person, onlyus8x, steered that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high greater than thrice quicker than earlier than, the downturn might additionally resolve quicker—“would possibly the winter additionally cross 3 occasions quicker?”
Crypto Dan pushed again on a easy velocity analogy, replying: “Because there are variations out of your previous, I personally set the standards otherwise from previous decline cycles by comprehensively judging this stuff as nicely.”
Mayer Multiple And The 200-Week MA
A separate post from analyst Will Clemente pointed to 2 long-watched, price-based benchmarks which can be additionally urgent into traditionally constructive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s life span we’ve got seen two indicators proceed to be the most effective world market backside alerts: The Mayer a number of (distance from 200 day transferring common) and the 200 week transferring common,” Clemente wrote. “Both of those are clearly in long run accumulation territory.”
The charts he shared present a Mayer Multiple round 0.60, alongside a backtest desk that flags prior cases when the indicator fell to roughly that stage. The similar picture positioned Bitcoin’s 200-week transferring common close to $57,926, with Bitcoin proven about 15% above it and a notice that it has “not but touched” that line within the present drawdown.
At press time, BTC traded at $67,277.
