Bitcoin Hash Rate Falls 4% Amid Miner Stress: What Does It Mean for the Price
Bitcoin’s (BTC) community hash fee has dropped 4% over the final 30 days, marking the sharpest decline in almost 2 years.
At the similar time, elevated volatility and a decline in costs spotlight mounting stress amongst miners as earnings dwindle. However, in line with funding administration agency VanEck, the miner capitulation could sign a backside.
Bitcoin Mining Power Falls as Price Weakness and China Shutdowns Hit Network
VanEck’s mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report highlighted that 4% dip in the community hashing energy was the largest since April 2024. The contraction comes amid a difficult month for Bitcoin, with the worth sliding round 9%.
Furthermore, volatility has spiked, pushing 30-day realized volatility above 45%, the highest stage seen since April 2025.
“We sometimes count on the fee to drop throughout giant pullbacks in Bitcoin worth,” Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote.
Beyond price-related pressures, Bitcoin’s hash fee was additionally affected by developments in China. Last week, BeInCrypto reported that roughly 400,000 machines had been compelled offline in China’s Xinjiang province.
The shutdown eradicated an estimated 1.3 GW of capability and had a sizeable influence on the community. China’s computing energy dropped by round 100 exahashes per second inside 24 hours.
“This is probably going as a result of shifting the energy era to AI demand and will end in the removing of as much as 10% of Bitcoin community hashing energy,” the analysts famous.
Meanwhile, miner economics have also worsened as a result of Bitcoin’s worth efficiency. According to VanEck, the breakeven electricity price on a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner decreased from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, representing a 36% drop. Sigel and Bush added that,
“While profitability for miners has been poor lately, many entities proceed to mine regardless of intervals of poor economics as a result of they consider in Bitcoin’s future. To assist the long-term hash fee of the Bitcoin community, we consider as much as 13 nations are mining with assist from their central governments.”
Historical Data Signals Bullish Turn
Despite the latest stress, VanEck famous that declining hash fee may very well be a “bullish contrarian signal.” Based on information since 2014, the report discovered that Bitcoin’s forward returns have tended to be stronger when the community hash fee is contracting.
The 90-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive about 65% of the time when the hash fee had declined over the prior 30 days, in contrast with 54% during times of rising hash fee.
In addition, common 180-day ahead returns had been barely increased when the hash fee was falling, at roughly 20.5%, in comparison with about 20.2% when it was rising. The sample holds over the long run as nicely.
“Across the 346 days since 2014, when the 90-day hash fee progress was unfavorable, 180-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive (77%) of the time, with a mean return of (+72%). Outside of these days, 180-day ahead BTC returns had been constructive (~61%) of the time and averaged (+48%),” the analysts revealed.
Technical Patterns Support Bottom Formation
On the technical entrance, market watchers have additionally been outlining potential backside indicators. Market analysts, together with Ted Pillows, have recognized a 3-day bullish divergence for Bitcoin, a sample that marked market bottoms in its final two appearances.
“BTC 3D bullish divergence is now confirmed. When this occurred the final 2 instances, Bitcoin fashioned a backside,” Pillows stated.
Whether Bitcoin in the end sees one other transfer increased stays unsure. For now, the main cryptocurrency stays below stress. BeInCrypto Markets data confirmed that Bitcoin was buying and selling at $88,066 at press time, down 1.01% over the previous 24 hours.
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