Bitcoin Heads for a Red October With 4 Bullish Signals Still Intact
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for a second straight dropping October, down 4.10% for the reason that month started. Yet 4 alerts throughout value, positioning, on-chain knowledge, and macro nonetheless lean bullish.
Galaxy and Santiment see indicators of a backside, whereas Glassnode knowledge reveals latest consumers have cooled off. Bitcoin’s November report, nevertheless, provides motive for warning.
Bitcoin Keeps Its Grip on the 50-Week Average
The value has slipped since BeInCrypto flagged 4 problems facing Bitcoin in early October. Its long-term chart construction, nevertheless, has held.
Galaxy analysis head Alex Thorn reads the 200-week common as Bitcoin’s bear-market ground and the 50-week as its ceiling. Bitcoin examined the ground in June and reclaimed the ceiling in September after 44 weeks below it.
At $79,935, BTC trades about 5% above the present 50-week common of $75,812.
Galaxy examined 4 earlier reclaims following durations of at the very least 20 weeks beneath the 50-week common. In every case, Bitcoin by no means closed greater than 8.4% beneath the reclaim degree throughout the next yr.
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The Fast Money Has Already Left the Room
Galaxy’s knowledge additionally reveals who offered throughout the downturn. Asset managers’ web lengthy positions in CME Bitcoin futures fell 57% from the week of Bitcoin’s all-time high.
Nine funding companies, together with Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, decreased their reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a mixed 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC for the reason that June low.
Recent Buyers Cool Off as Retail Heads for the Exit
While massive funds have pulled again, on-chain knowledge tracks the smaller consumers. Glassnode says about 70% of short-term holder provide sits in revenue, down from virtually all in late September.
“For consumers who count on the uptrend to proceed, that makes this a significantly higher entry than a month in the past,” the agency said.
Bitcoin has additionally misplaced roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, per Santiment. The agency reads that exit as a attainable backside sign.
“Retail capitulation has traditionally been extra constructive for value than a sudden flood of latest consumers chasing rallies,” it famous.
Washington’s Debt Pile Builds the Long-Term Case
The fourth sign sits outdoors crypto markets. US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, and financial 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit.
Galaxy argues that refinancing such a massive debt load at rates of interest close to 5% might enhance stress on policymakers to tolerate inflation, probably strengthening the case for fixed-supply belongings akin to Bitcoin.
That stress performs out over years, nevertheless, so it provides little steering on near-term value strikes.
November’s Strong Record Comes With a Catch
Bitcoin’s personal historical past provides the primary counterweight. November has closed increased in 63% of years since 2010, with a median acquire of 10.26%, Coinglass knowledge reveals.
However, November rose in solely 2 of the 5 years that adopted a purple October. Last yr, a 3.95% October loss preceded a 17.49% November drop.
Santiment says a sustained break below $79,000 would delay its backside sign. A reclaim close to $82,500 would strengthen it.
The October shut, now 4 days away, will present which facet of that vary Bitcoin holds.
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The submit (*4*) appeared first on BeInCrypto.
