Bitcoin Holds $110K, But Traders Just Bet $1.15B on Crash to $104K
Bitcoin institutional merchants wager over $1.15 billion on draw back safety previously 24 hours, with put choices accounting for 28% of complete market transactions regardless of Bitcoin holding above $110,000.
Greekslive reported transactions concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money places for this week and month, with a buying and selling vary of $104,000 to $108,000 forming the dense space.
Market skew turned deeply destructive, with short-term deviation comparable to October 11 ranges instantly after the $19 billion liquidation crash.
Greekslive acknowledged “the choices market, significantly massive gamers reminiscent of market makers, has a high diploma of panic concerning the draw back within the latter market, even approaching the sentiment after the great market collapse on the eleventh.“
The defensive positioning comes as Bitcoin trades above $110,000, down 1%, however holding above a key psychological help stage in that vary.
According to Coinalyze, the overall open curiosity throughout all Bitcoin derivatives stands at $33.0 billion, with perpetual contracts accounting for $30.9 billion and futures contracts at $2.2 billion. Open curiosity declined 1.67% in 24 hours.
Whale Moves and Short Positions
Earlier at present, Onchain Lens shared blockchain records displaying {that a} Bitcoin whale transferred 2,000 BTC, price roughly $222 million, into 51 new addresses on Thursday.
The cash had been break up throughout a number of new wallets, with 50 addresses receiving about 37.5 BTC every and one receiving 121 BTC.
Such migrations are widespread amongst massive holders in search of higher privateness or up to date pockets codecs, relatively than panicking due to the continued large liquidation.
Speaking with Cryptonews, Andreas Brekken, founding father of SideShift.ai, famous that the continued liquidation is primarily focusing on “everybody who mixed the 2 deadliest substances in crypto, shitcoins and leverage.”
He added that “merchants wanting to profit from an alt season want to discover cash that match the income meta and maintain spot. There is not any secure quantity of perps leverage on cash that may go to zero.“
Bearish sentiment extends past choices markets.
Lookonchain knowledge additionally reveals one trader opened a 3,440 BTC short position price roughly $392 million, already sitting on $5.7 million in unrealized good points.
Two different massive merchants constructed brief books price practically $180 million throughout BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE.
Social media reviews claimed a whale they tagged “Trump insider” opened one other $120-127 million Bitcoin brief at $111,386.
BREAKING
TRUMP’S INSIDER JUST OPENED ANOTHER $BTC SHORT AT $111,386 FOR $120 MILLION
HIS WIN RATE IS 100%…
PRAYING FOR OUR BAGS
pic.twitter.com/t7JyxGdLIA
— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) October 16, 2025
The narrative significantly gained traction amid heightened hypothesis about upcoming Trump bulletins that might probably influence markets.
Currently, Binance leads change open curiosity at $11.5 billion, adopted by Bybit at $7.0 billion, Huobi at $4.3 billion, and OKX at $3.6 billion.
Deribit, specializing in choices, holds $2.7 billion, whereas Hyperliquid accounts for $2.4 billion.
Bitcoin Analysis: RSI Divergence Points to Extended Correction Risk
The weekly RSI shows bearish divergence, with worth making larger highs whereas momentum makes decrease highs, a technical warning sign that always precedes main corrections, in accordance to analyst Ali Martinez.
The descending trendline connecting RSI peaks all through 2024-2025 reveals that every worth advance occurred with much less momentum power.
Bitcoin trades between long-term parabolic help and resistance buildings, with present positioning suggesting neither imminent collapse nor parabolic acceleration.
Monthly charts additionally reveal that the 4-year halving cycle sample could also be evolving because the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing shifts the market construction from a supply-driven to a liquidity-driven dynamic.
Analyst Ted Pillows suggests “the $BTC 4-year cycle is more than likely over,” noting “it was by no means a few 4-year cycle however about liquidity.”
The $104,000 stage, the place put choices focus, represents roughly 7.3% draw back from present ranges and aligns with latest liquidation occasion lows round $102,000.
Currently, Bitcoin faces possible consolidation between $105,000-$120,000.
The $104,000 stage represents a crucial check the place Bitcoin both finds help and stabilizes or breaks towards deeper correction zones round $96,500 MVRV truthful worth.
An prolonged timeframe for brand spanking new all-time highs seems doubtless, with 2026 probably representing a extra lifelike peak than December 2025 if liquidity circumstances evolve as anticipated.
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