Bitcoin is ‘Stuck in Consolidation Limbo’, Not Ready For a Bullish Reversal, Says Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating inside a delicate bearish section, buying and selling between $97,000 and $111,900. The resistance stands close to $116,000 “marked by top-buyers’ provide cluster,” according to the newest report by the blockchain information supplier Glassnode.

Notably, important components like ETF outflows, low leverage, and protracted put demand painting a extremely cautious market that’s at the moment ready for “renewed conviction.”

Market in a State of Consolidation

Bitcoin has dipped under $100,000 in the seven-day timeframe. While transient, the slip proved a continuation of the broader downtrend that started in early October.

It pushed the market into what the report calls “a delicate bearish regime.” Prices are buying and selling beneath the short-term holder price foundation.

Moreover, “a vary affected by the dearth of conviction and low liquidity has been confirmed.” This vary consists of robust resistance between $106,000 and $118,000 on the one hand, and key structural assist close to $97,500 and $100,000 on the opposite.

Looking deeper, on-chain information confirmed a transient accumulation close to $100,000, suggesting localized assist. Yet, if there is no decisive reclaim of the short-term holders’ price foundation at $111,900, the “upside momentum is prone to keep constrained.”

Similarly, off-chain indicators sign warning as nicely. There are a number of key components suggesting subdued speculative engagement. These embody the US spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows, muted funding charges, and low open curiosity level. Options merchants nonetheless choose draw back safety round $100,000.

When it involves the ETFs, “a decisive return of inflows would sign renewed institutional confidence, whereas extended outflows may reinforce a extra defensive market tone,” says the report.

The analysts conclude that,

“Overall, each on-chain and off-chain alerts painting a market in a state of consolidation, stabilizing but not but prepared to substantiate a bullish reversal. Until renewed inflows or a clear macro catalyst emerge, Bitcoin seems certain to oscillate inside this $97K–$111.9K hall, with $100K remaining the psychological line of defence.”

Meanwhile, the current drawdown is much like earlier contraction phases when costs moved inside a outlined decrease vary earlier than restoration. “Unless Bitcoin reclaims the short-term holder price foundation (~$111.9K) as assist, the chance of revisiting the decrease certain of this vary stays elevated.”

A Critical Battleground

Reclaiming the above-mentioned short-term holder price foundation is a essential prerequisite for “any sustainable shift towards restoration.”

At this level, “the sub-$100K zone has emerged as a vital battleground the place vendor exhaustion is starting to take form,” Glassnode famous. “Much of the downward strain stems from high patrons amongst short-term holders, who’ve been realizing heavy losses through the decline.”

When BTC examined $98,000, over 80% of realized worth got here from cash offered at a loss. For a transient second, this capitulation depth surpassed the final three main washouts of this cycle. This highlights “how top-heavy the market has grow to be and the way pivotal the $100K degree stays for near-term stability.”

Meanwhile, the Realized Profit of Short-Term Holders has been weak since June 2025. This reveals a lack of recent inflows. It wants stronger demand from new market entrants and renewed conviction if BTC is to push by the $106,000–$118,000 top-buyer cluster.

As for volatility, it “stays supported by macroeconomic danger components and cautious sentiment.” Yet, there is no extra growth. This “factors to consolidation fairly than capitulation.”

Interestingly, there is proof that the market has adjusted to a greater baseline of uncertainty with out getting into a state of panic.

Finally, the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap present a build-up of realized provide across the sub-$100,000 zone. It’s each earlier than and after the rebound to $106,000, exhibiting renewed accumulation by patrons absorbing capitulation flows.

“This dynamic completes the image; pairing vendor exhaustion with regular accumulation, creating the muse for a short-term restoration even inside a broader bearish construction,” says Glassnode.

Also, a dense provide cluster between $106,000 and $118,000 (the place many traders exit to interrupt even) capping upward momentum kinds a pure resistance zone the place rallies could stall. Consequently, “a sustained restoration would require renewed inflows robust sufficient to soak up this wave of distribution,” the report concludes.

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