Bitcoin just touched a critical price point but this order book signal suggests the move to $100k might backfire
Bitcoin (BTC) almost touched $98,000 in a single day earlier than settling round $96,000, up roughly 5.5% over current periods. The rally reignited a acquainted query: is this the setup for a sustained move above $100,000, or one other fragile push constructed on skinny order books and positioning video games?
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Glassnode’s newest evaluation reveals a nuanced image, the place mechanical positioning drove the current move whereas broader structural demand stays uneven and liquidity stays compressed.
Supply meets demand at a critical threshold
The present price sits inside a dense cluster of long-term holder provide accrued between April and July 2025, spanning roughly $93,000 to $110,000.
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals this overhead provide zone, the place rebounds since November have repeatedly stalled. Each try has encountered renewed promoting strain, stopping the price from sustaining structural restoration.
This area has constantly served as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from sturdy bull markets.
The short-term holder’s price foundation at the moment stands at $98,300, reflecting the common entry price of current patrons. Glassnode notes that reclaiming and holding above this stage has traditionally marked the transition from corrective phases into extra sturdy uptrends.
The price’s means to consolidate above $98,300 stays essential to restore confidence and lay the foundations for sustained momentum.
Long-term holder conduct offers context for the quantity of overhead provide the market should take up. While long-term holders stay web sellers, the distribution charge has slowed materially from the aggressive promoting seen all through the second half of 2025.
Glassnode experiences that long-term holders are at the moment realizing roughly 12,800 BTC per week in web revenue, down from cycle peaks above 100,000 BTC per week.
This moderation suggests profit-taking stays lively but far much less aggressive than throughout prior distribution phases.
Institutional flows stabilize, spot markets enhance
Institutional balance-sheet flows have accomplished a full reset.
After extended outflows throughout spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, web flows have stabilized. Spot ETFs have turned optimistic, re-establishing themselves as the main marginal purchaser.
Bitcoin ETFs register $1.5 billion in net inflows for January, with almost $1.6 billion in inflows registered between Jan. 13 and 14, in accordance to Farside Investors knowledge.
Spot market conduct has turned constructive. Binance and mixture alternate cumulative quantity delta measures have returned to a buy-dominant regime, reflecting a shift away from persistent sell-side strain.
Coinbase, which has been the most constant supply of promoting all through consolidation, has meaningfully slowed its distribution.
While spot participation just isn’t but displaying the persistent, aggressive accumulation sometimes seen throughout full pattern enlargement phases, the transition again into a net-buying posture represents a constructive structural shift.
Mechanical strikes on skinny quantity
Short liquidations mechanically bolstered the push into the $96,000 area, but it unfolded on comparatively skinny derivatives quantity.
Glassnode notes that futures turnover has remained nicely under the elevated exercise seen all through most of 2025.
The breakout occurred in a comparatively mild liquidity surroundings the place modest positioning shifts drove disproportionately massive price responses. In sensible phrases, it didn’t take important new capital to drive shorts out of the market and carry the price by means of resistance.
This dynamic connects straight to the liquidity downside seen in order books. Aggregated 2% market depth has declined roughly 30% from 2025 highs, in accordance to knowledge supplier Kaiko.
On Binance particularly, 1% depth exceeded $600 million at the October 2025 peak but fell under $400 million by Dec. 20. Thinner books amplify price swings, making the tape extra delicate to massive flows and strategic positioning.
Blockchain knowledge provides texture to this narrative.
On Dec. 31, market maker Wintermute net-deposited 1,213 BTC to Binance, with transfers concentrated throughout low-activity home windows.
Large alternate deposits throughout skinny hours elevate the threat of outsized tape influence, particularly when books lack depth.
However, the manipulation framing has limits. A extensively circulated declare on Dec. 30 alleged “multi-billion dollar manipulation,” but on-chain transfers referenced totaled lower than $30 million.
The higher rationalization for sharp intraday strikes is structural fragility mixed with stop-hunting moderately than provable coordinated schemes.
$100,000 as a mechanical attractor
The $100,000 stage sits at a convergence point the place price foundation, choices publicity, and supplier hedging align. Coin Metrics notes that decision open curiosity is clustered around $100,000 strike costs for late-January expiries.
Glassnode experiences that sellers are quick gamma between roughly $95,000 and $104,000, which may reinforce upside strikes as sellers hedge by shopping for spot or futures when costs rise.
In a quick gamma surroundings, hedging flows not take up price strikes. Instead, they reinforce them.
This construction creates fragile stability. Volatility can stay low whereas price is contained, but as soon as momentum develops, strikes are extra probably to speed up than fade.
With spot buying and selling round the $95,000 to $96,000 space, the price has moved into a quick gamma zone the place sustained motion supported by quantity is extra probably to set off directional hedging flows.
Options conduct round the $100,000 strike highlights conditional upside expectations. In quick to mid-term maturities up to roughly three months, the name premium purchased has considerably outweighed the name premium offered, indicating lively demand for near-dated upside publicity.
In distinction, longer-dated maturities present the reverse conduct, as richer name premiums additional out the curve had been used as alternatives to promote upside.
This break up suggests the market is positioning for a potential retest of the $100,000 space whereas concurrently expressing hesitation about sustained acceptance above that stage over longer horizons.
Volatility deferred, not resolved
Implied volatility stays low throughout the curve, with Deribit’s DVOL studying around the 40s.
However, this studying masks underlying fragility. Skew continues to price draw back threat, with the 25-delta skew remaining biased towards places, notably at mid and longer maturities.
This displays a market that’s comfy carrying publicity but unwilling to accomplish that with out insurance coverage.
The coexistence of low volatility and destructive skew highlights a key pressure. Participants will not be positioning for instant draw back, but they proceed to pay for uneven safety.
Volatility will increase regularly with maturity, suggesting uncertainty is assigned to time moderately than to a particular near-term catalyst, according to a market that expects short-term stability whereas remaining uncovered to latent threat.
The $100,000 take a look at
If Bitcoin is genuinely organising for a sustained move above $100,000, two circumstances want to align.
First, price should reclaim and maintain above the $98,300 short-term holder price foundation, inserting current patrons again in revenue and decreasing the incentive to promote into rallies.
Second, liquidity and flows want to enhance concurrently. ETF inflows remaining optimistic present one signal, but depth stabilization issues extra. If the sub-$400 million Binance 1% depth regime persists, the market stays weak to whipsaws.
Profit-taking has cooled, distribution from long-term holders has slowed, and traditional late-cycle euphoria metrics aren’t flashing crimson. But liquidity fragility introduces a wildcard.
Order books are measurably thinner than at October highs, and enormous flows throughout low-activity home windows can produce outsized tape strikes.
The $100,000 stage issues as a result of it is the place a number of structural forces converge, equivalent to price foundation, choices publicity, and supplier hedging, making it a pure attractor if circumstances stabilize.
Whether Bitcoin reclaims $100,000 and holds relies upon much less on narrative and extra on whether or not the market can rebuild depth whereas sustaining optimistic flows. The indicators are inexperienced, distribution strain has eased, and institutional demand is stabilizing.
But the mechanics stay fragile, and the current move occurred on skinny quantity with mechanical assist from quick overlaying.
That’s the present state of play, the place modest capital can generate important motion, but sustainability requires deeper accumulation to comply with.
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