Bitcoin Likely to Stall in Q1 2026 as Capital Flows Dry Up, CryptoQuant Says
CryptoQuant chief government Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to commerce sideways by means of the primary quarter of 2026, warning that capital inflows into the asset have slowed as traders rotate again into conventional markets.
Key Takeaways:
- CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to commerce sideways in early 2026 as capital flows gradual.
- Weak sentiment and rotation into shares and valuable metals are weighing on short-term momentum.
- Strong ETF inflows counsel institutional curiosity stays regardless of the muted worth outlook.
“Capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up,” Ju said Wednesday, arguing that cash has not too long ago shifted towards equities and valuable metals as gold and silver costs surge.
While Bitcoin has typically proven robust momentum early in the 12 months, Ju stated the present setup factors to a interval of subdued worth motion relatively than a pointy rally or sell-off.
Bitcoin Slips From Weekly High as CryptoQuant CEO Sees Sideways Trading
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was buying and selling round $90,900, down greater than 2% on the day and off its weekly high close to $94,400, in accordance to CoinMarketCap.
Ju stated a deep drawdown seems unlikely, including that the market is extra probably headed for “boring sideways” buying and selling over the approaching months.
A flat first quarter would run counter to historic patterns. January has sometimes delivered modest beneficial properties for Bitcoin, averaging a 3.8% return since 2013.
February and March have been stronger, with common beneficial properties of 13.1% and 12.2%, respectively, in accordance to knowledge from CoinGlass.
Ju’s cautious outlook follows latest warnings from veteran dealer Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro analysis director Jurrien Timmer, each of whom have floated situations the place Bitcoin might revisit the $60,000–$65,000 vary this 12 months.
Market sentiment has additionally remained weak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hovered between “worry” and “excessive worry” since early November, registering a rating of 28 on Thursday, signaling continued warning amongst merchants.
However, not all indicators are pointing decrease. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds opened 2026 with renewed inflows, recording $925.3 million in web additions over the primary three buying and selling days of the 12 months, in accordance to Farside Investors.
The flows counsel that institutional curiosity stays intact regardless of short-term hesitation.
Bitcoin Bulls Stay Confident as Draper and Bitwise Eye New Highs in 2026
Optimism amongst long-term bulls additionally stays robust. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that 2026 would be a breakout year, repeating his long-standing $250,000 Bitcoin worth goal.
Meanwhile, Bitwise head of analysis Ryan Rasmussen has argued that Bitcoin will break its conventional four-year cycle in 2026 and push to new highs.
Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 as easing financial coverage injects contemporary liquidity into world markets, reviving danger urge for food after a chronic interval of tight monetary circumstances.
Barhydt stated the US central financial institution is already laying the groundwork for looser coverage.
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