Bitcoin loses its last line of defense: $98k breakdown sparks cascade not seen since May

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 3% to $98,550.33 as of press time, falling under the psychological $100,000 threshold for the third time this month amid cascading leverage liquidations, persistent ETF outflows, and a broader risk-off posture throughout digital belongings.

The slide accelerated after Bitcoin broke assist at $100,000, triggering over $190 million in lengthy liquidations up to now hour, per Coinglass knowledge.

Bitcoin failed to interrupt by way of the support-turned-resistance stage at $106,400 earlier this week, elevating issues about what was to return. However, each time it misplaced that stage, it has at all times rebounded across the psychological $100,000 assist or no less than the $99,000 assist created again in June.

Total liquidations throughout the previous 24 hours reached $655 million, amplifying downward momentum as over-leveraged positions unwound.

Ethereum declined 5.75% to $3,218.37, Solana dropped 5.2% to $145.55, and BNB fell 3.2% to $922.90, reflecting synchronized promoting strain throughout main tokens.

ETF flows flip unfavourable as institutional demand softens

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $278 million on Nov. 12, contributing to roughly $961 million in cumulative redemptions this month, in keeping with Farside Investors.

The shift from web inflows to modest withdrawals removes a key stabilizing power that supported costs by way of mid-2025, leaving spot markets extra susceptible to derivatives-driven volatility.

Historical patterns recommend that ETF move reversals usually coincide with consolidation phases slightly than intervals of directional conviction.

Glassnode’s Nov. 12 analysis confirms that Bitcoin has traded under the short-term holder price foundation of $111,900 since early October, establishing a bearish regime characterised by low liquidity and weak conviction.

The community’s short-term holder realized profit-loss ratio fell under 0.21 close to $98,000, indicating that over 80% of the realized worth got here from cash offered at a loss, representing a capitulation depth exceeding that of the last three main washouts of the present cycle.

Glassnode identifies the sub-$100,000 zone as a essential battleground the place vendor exhaustion is starting to take form. However, a sustained restoration requires Bitcoin to reclaim the $111,900 price foundation as a stage of assist.

Sentiment deteriorates as leverage dries up

Bitcoin perpetual futures funding charges stay subdued throughout main exchanges, with each funding charges and open curiosity drifting decrease since October’s leverage flush.

The absence of aggressive positioning displays market hesitation, with merchants avoiding directional bets as volatility expectations stay elevated.

Options market knowledge reinforces this defensive stance. Put safety trades are priced at an 11% implied volatility premium over requires short-term expiries, indicating that merchants proceed to pay for draw back insurance coverage.

Open curiosity concentrates closely across the $100,000 strike for end-of-November expiries, making this stage a essential threshold the place seller hedging flows may amplify volatility if breached.

Recent possibility flows have centered on places between the $108,000 and $95,000 strikes, structured as outright safety or calendar spreads that seize expectations of near-term turbulence.

Glassnode’s price foundation distribution heatmap reveals a dense provide cluster between $106,000 and $118,000, representing buyers positioned to exit close to breakeven.

This provide overhang creates pure resistance the place rallies might stall except renewed inflows take up distribution strain.

The agency notes demand from short-term holders, a proxy for brand new investor momentum, has remained notably weak since June 2025, reflecting an absence of contemporary capital coming into the market.

Broader threat sentiment deteriorated alongside crypto declines, with increased actual yields and protracted funding stress pressuring speculative belongings regardless of the current decision of the US authorities shutdown.

Morgan Stanley’s current “fall season” be aware suggested purchasers to reap positive factors slightly than chase upside throughout this section of the four-year cycle, contributing to decreased threat urge for food amongst institutional allocators.

The mixture of heavy leverage positioning, gentle ETF demand, and structural resistance above present costs remodeled every breach under $100,000 right into a self-reinforcing cascade.

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