Bitcoin Nears Red Yearly Close: Galaxy Digital Explains The Setup

Bitcoin is heading into New Year’s Eve on the verge of printing a pink yearly candle, a clumsy setup after a 12 months filled with pro-crypto coverage and institutional headlines. Galaxy Digital head of analysis Alex Thorn mentioned BTC is down 6.3% year-to-date and eight.25% year-over-year, and would wish a each day shut above $93,389 on New Year’s Eve to complete 2025 optimistic.

The late-year temper has been outlined by a tender This fall tape and a deeper drawdown than many bulls anticipated this late within the cycle. Thorn famous BTC traded as little as roughly 36% under its Oct. 6, 2025 all-time high of $125,296, whilst a gradual stream of bullish headlines landed all year long.

“Despite the tepid end, 2025 was a banner 12 months for Bitcoin. Even Bitcoin’s staunchest supporters wouldn’t have believed a few of 2025’s headlines just some years in the past… 2025 has been full of dozens of optimistic headlines for Bitcoin that previously would have sparked euphoria. Today, these victories really feel like par for the course. Maybe we actually are ‘bored with successful?’” Thorn wrote in Galaxy’s weekly analysis notice.

Bitcoin On Verge Of Red Yearly Candle

Thorn argued that a part of the market’s stalled really feel is mechanical, not philosophical. He pointed to a big month-end choices expiry as a possible catalyst for loosening the range-bound habits he described between the mid-$80,000s and $90,000.

Related Reading: Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level

“A big choices expiry on the finish of the month clear a number of the excellent supplier gamma that has inspired bitcoin to remain pinned between main $85k and $90k, and January might immediate some portfolio managers to take a contemporary have a look at the world’s oldest cryptocurrency. There are the reason why the quiet interval we’ve seen for the final month won’t persist within the close to time period.”

He additionally cited headwinds that hit spot demand and danger urge for food: “important whale distribution,” an Oct. 10 leverage wipeout, and competitors from different macro trades comparable to AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the “Mag 7.”
One of Thorn’s key observations was the divergence between bitcoin’s drawdown and US bitcoin ETF habits.

He mentioned US bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows are down solely 9% from their October peak of $62 billion, despite the fact that bitcoin fell sharply from its highs and, in his estimate, 60% of ETF inflows are underwater at present costs.

That resilience, he argued, makes the supply of promoting extra notable. “So, who has been promoting?” Thorn wrote. “The name is coming from inside the home.” Since July 2025, he mentioned cash held by long-term holders have declined extra sharply than at any level within the eight years because the 2017 bull run, suggesting older on-chain holders have been internet sellers into newer brokerage-led demand.

Thorn framed that distribution as painful within the quick run however constructive for the asset’s long-run maturity, lifting the common price foundation and broadening possession. He highlighted bitcoin’s realized market cap above $1.1 trillion and a realized worth above $56,000 as proof of the community’s rising mixture principal.

In a Dec. 21 put up summarizing Galaxy’s 2026 outlook, Thorn mentioned Galaxy predicts bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end 2027, whereas calling 2026 “too chaotic to foretell.” Options markets, he famous, are at the moment pricing roughly equal odds of $70,000 or $130,000 by end-June 2026, and $50,000 or $250,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting unusually extensive uncertainty bands.

He additionally pointed to a structural decline in longer-term volatility and a modified skew: the BTC vol smile now costs places as costlier than calls, which he described as a shift towards patterns extra typical of macro belongings than high-growth markets.

Looking into 2026, Thorn’s near-term marker is whether or not BTC can “firmly re-establish” itself above $100,000–$105,000. Over the longer run, he argued the larger story is demand for non-dollar hedges—and the way little incremental allocation may be wanted to maneuver the market.

“We imagine it’s seemingly solely a matter of time earlier than ‘Bitcoin follows gold to turn out to be broadly adopted as a financial debasement hedge.’ It doesn’t take a lot to begin a stampede in that route – a couple of main allocators, central banks, or nation states may be all it takes to spark the fuse and light-weight a hearth.”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,748.